Shattered Georgia pays high price for peace
August 12, 2008
President Saakashvili guards scramble to protect him from air raid risk
Tim Reid As President Saakashvili looked up in terror at the Russian helicopter roaring over the besieged town of Gori, with his troops in retreat and Western allies offering no more than words against Moscow, the catastrophic consequences of his decision to take military action in South
Ossetia last week could not have been clearer.
In his attempts to clamp down on pro-Russian South Ossetian separatists, Mr Saakashvili appears to have made one fundamental, disastrous miscalculation: that the Bush Administration and the West viewed their relationship with Georgia as more important than that with Russia.
Last night President Bush issued a strong condemnation of Russia’s actions, but did not refer to any action that the United States might take in Georgia’s defence. Mr Bush said there was evidence that Russia was trying to overthrow a democratically elected government and planning to attack the civilian airport in Tbilisi. “Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century,” he added.
A few hours before Mr Bush’s strong but not very supportive words, a flak-jacketed Mr Saakashvili had visited Gori, about 40 miles north of the Georgian capital Tbilisi. As a helicopter appeared, his bodyguards pushed him to the ground, and then into a black armoured vehicle,
shouting “Go, go, go!”. His US-trained army was soon fleeing the town in disarray.
Mr Saakashvili, the flamboyant, multilingual, Harvard-educated law graduate who swept to power in the 2003 bloodless Rose Revolution, has particularly close ties to the neoconservative, pro-democracy wing of the US Government. Mr Bush had repeatedly championed Georgia as a
bastion of democracy. 
Only four months ago Mr Saakashvili, 40, hailed a breakthrough in his campaign to turn his poverty-stricken country into a free-market member of the West after Nato leaders declared that Georgia would one day join the military alliance. He had sent 2,000 troops to Iraq and
harboured serious hopes of joining the European Union.
He was the embodiment, in Western eyes, of how the newly emerging Eastern Europe should look: young, free-market, dynamic and a buttress against the expansionist aims of an increasingly powerful Russia.
Now he risks losing not only those hopes but also South Ossetia and his grip on power itself, with Moscow’s intention of seeing him overthrown becoming clearer by the day. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, accused the Kremlin of seeking Mr
Saakashvili’s downfall. He said that Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, had told Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, that “the democratically elected President of Georgia must go”. 
Analysts believe that Russia has been waiting for an excuse to invade Georgia and destroy Mr Saakashvili, and the Georgian President’s decision last week to clamp down on separatists in South Ossetia appears to have been the disastrous misjudgment that gave Russia an
opening. The belief in Washington is that Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, thought that the West would do little to help Georgia because of Russia’s strategic might and because much of Europe depended heavily on its gas supplies.
The most support that Georgia received from Western allies yesterday was a ceasefire call from the G7 group of nations and an offer to broker a ceasefire from the European Union, both brushed aside by Moscow.
Gordon Brown said that Russia was damaging its international reputation, while David Cameron, the Conservative leader, labelled Russia a “dangerous and massive bully” and called for Georgia to be given accelerated Nato membership. Mr Brown said: “There is no justification for
continued Russian military action in Georgia, which threatens the stability of the entire region and risks a humanitarian catastrophe.” 
Bruce Jackson, an influential advocate of democracy in Eastern European, said that the Russian invasion smacked of “rank premeditation”, adding: “The Georgians were naive to think that the international system could protect them. There will be a lot of blame to go around for this.
We have failed a young democracy.”
Defeat in South Ossetia is a bitter blow to Mr Saakashvili, who came to power championing a united Georgia. His political currency has been debased at home because his Western allies — particularly the US — appear to be doing little to halt the deaths of thousands of Georgian
civilians. The wisdom of his gamble will inevitably be questioned by his own voters, as will his staunchly pro-Western policies.
Even before the war, Mr Saakashvili was facing growing domestic unrest amid accusations that he was trying to consolidate power. Tens of thousands of people attended a protest rally in May, challenging the results of a snap presidential election in January.
Roman Kuzniar, Professor of Political Science at Warsaw University, said: “The Georgians made a big mistake. Now Georgia will have to take the toll, most probably disproportionately severe.”
Bruce George, a Labour MP and close follower of Georgian-Russian relations, said: “I believe the Georgians were suckered into this and paid a very heavy price. If you embark on a war, as the Georgians did, you have to work out what the consequences will be. It was inevitable that
the Russians would react very heavily.”
Under Mr Saakashvili, Georgia has achieved impressive economic growth and attracted foreign capital. The war is likely to damage the Georgian economy significantly and scare off many foreign investors. If Georgia had been a Nato member, it could have invoked the alliance’s
Article V mutual defence clause, requiring nations to come to the assistance of an ally under attack.
The Russian aggression, therefore, has greatly complicated Georgian hopes of Nato membership. David Lubin, an economist at Citigroup, said: “This makes Nato expansion much less likely. The last thing the United States needs now is another front. That’s exactly what Russia is
taking advantage of.” Franco Frattini, the Italian Foreign Minister, said: “This war has pushed Georgia farther away not just from Europe, but also complicates the Nato council in December.”
The case for and against Nato membership For Nato is a political as well as a security organisation and the objective of its expansionist policy is to seek to embrace into the same
network as many countries in the wider European family as possible. With the entry of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia into the alliance, the pro-Western state of Georgia felt that it had every right to join the queue of applicants. The alliance has agreed to admit it in principle because
membership helps to spread democracy and stability. Extending membership would protect a strategic Western ally from the threat of Russian attack Against Nato’s expansion programme has caused deep anxiety in Russia. The proposed installation of elements of America’s missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic is viewed with suspicion, and inviting Georgia to join the alliance is seen, from Moscow’s viewpoint,
as another stab in the back. The Caucasus is Russia’s unstable backyard. Nato has no interest in provoking Russia for the sake of adding another country to the long list of members. Relations with Moscow would be seriously damaged. The West could be drawn into a new Cold
War or, worse, open conflict with the Kremlin
As Russian armoured columns rolled deep into central and western Georgia, seizing several towns and a military base, President Saakashvili said that his country had been cut in half.
For the first time since the crisis erupted last Thursday, Russia admitted that its troops had moved out of Abkhazia, the other breakaway region under Moscow’s protection, and seized the town of Senaki in Georgia proper. Russian officials again insisted that they had no intention
of occupying territory beyond South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Georgia said that the Russian Army was also in command of the towns of Zugdidi and Kurga in the west, and its tanks appeared to be moving from the north and the west towards Tbilisi, the capital.
The Russia-Georgia grudge matchSimon Sebag Montefiore says retaking Ossetia is just one part of Russia's campaign to reassert dominance and defy the US The retreat from Gori, the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, was as humiliating as it was sudden and dramatic. The Times witnessed scores of tanks and armoured personnel carriers, laden with soldiers, speeding through the town away from what Georgian officials claimed was an imminent
Russian invasion.
Residents watched in horror as their army abandoned its positions after a day of increasingly aggressive exchanges of fire along the border with South Ossetia, the breakaway region now fully under Russian control.
Jeeps and pick-up trucks filled with Georgian soldiers raced through the streets, their occupants frantically signalling to civilians that they too should flee. The road out of Gori towards Tbilisi was a scene of chaos and fear as cars jockeyed with tanks for a speedy escape.
Soldiers left by any means available. Dozens of troops clung to cars on the back of a transporter lorry, while five other soldiers fled on one quad bike.
A tank had exploded on the mountain road leaving Gori, although it was unclear what had caused the blast. The Times passed an armoured car in flames, soldiers leaping from the roof of the vehicle. It had apparently caught fire while trying to bulldoze the tank’s burning shell out of
the way. Columns of Georgian tanks and heavy weaponry filled the road during the 50-mile journey back to Tbilisi as thousands of soldiers, many looking totally demoralised, headed for the capital. Police sealed off the highway from Tbilisi, turning back the few cars that ventured
towards Gori.
The Russian attacks were met with Georgian artillery fire towards South Ossetia, despite President Saakashvili’s statement that he had called a ceasefire. Reporters later witnessed at least six Georgian helicopters attacking targets in South Ossetia.
Elsewhere, Russian armoured personnel carriers swept into Senaki, 20 miles inland from the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti, which Russian troops were also said to be attacking.
Georgia said that Russian forces seized police stations in Zugdidi, where reporters saw Russian soldiers posted outside an Interior Ministry building and armoured vehicles moving through the town.
It was unclear last night where the tanks fleeing from Gori were heading, but many of the troops regrouped on the outskirts of Tbilisi as if preparing to make a stand to defend the capital. Some artillery pieces had also been sited on the approach road from Gori.
The panic had been triggered at about 5pm, when troops suddenly started pouring out of Gori. Officials from the Georgian Interior Ministry claimed that up to 7,000 Russian troops with tanks were heading for the town and that it was under imminent threat of bombardment. A
similar panic had ensued on Sunday night as thousands of people poured from the town, in what turned out to be a false alarm. The fear this time was more tangible, the sense of threat more real, as Gori’s streets emptied rapidly.
Not everyone was prepared to leave, however. One man said: “This is my city. I will never leave it even if the Russians come here and kill me.
Why should I go to Tbilisi and wait for them there?”
The Georgian Government, which appealed for international support, claimed later that Russian troops had entered Gori, although there was no independent confirmation of this.
As the noose appeared to tighten around Tbilisi, the US State Department evacuated more than 170 American citizens. Poland and several other former Soviet satellites voiced fears that the fighting indicated Russia’s willingness to use force to regain its dominance of the region.
Even at the height of the chaos, Georgia’s legendary hospitality never faltered. A 70-year-old woman named Eteri retreated into her home and appeared moments later to offer apples from her garden to her guests. “I am not afraid,” she said. “We have lived with the Russians for 100
years so why do we need this war now? I don’t want to be with America; I think we should live peacefully with the Russians.”
Shattered Georgia pays high price for peace
After five days of fighting, President Medvedev of Russia ordered his troops in South Ossetia to hold their fire and fixed a six-point peace plan with President Sarkozy of France.
The deal throws open for discussion the future of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia’s two breakway provinces that want closer links with Russia.
The French President, negotiating on behalf of the EU, defended the terms, insisting that Moscow had promised to respect Georgia’s sovereignty even though the proposals raised questions about its territorial integrity.
In the United States, there was widespread dismay over the ease with which Moscow had imposed its will on a loyal US ally.
Mr Sarkozy spent three hours hammering out the details with Mr Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister.
It was agreed that forces would withdraw to their positions before Georgia attacked last Thursday, allowing aid workers to attend a civilian population which, according to the Russians, has suffered up to 2,000 casualties.
However, fighting continued after the ceasefire was announced. Forces backed by Russia launched an offensive in the only part of Abkhazia still under Georgian control. An area near the town of Gori was bombed. A Dutch television cameraman was killed by a shell, and his
colleague was wounded. The Times was shown a fragment of what appeared to be a Grad missile that had struck an apartment building behind the main square.
The peace talks were delayed by arguments over Russia’s determination to “mop up pockets of resistance”, according to the French.
About 135 Russian military vehicles were seen driving through Georgia en route to the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, the last zone held by the Georgians. Abkhazian officials later claimed that their forces, not the Russians, had captured the area.
Later, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, appeared to toughen the ceasefire terms, saying that Georgia must also sign a binding treaty on the nonuse of force. He also demanded the departure of Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian President.
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