Eastern province: Impact of altered demographics

Eastern province: Impact of altered demographics

by Neville Ladduwahetty The Island lk 12 04 08

Following every terrorist act in Sri Lanka there arises a refrain that the country’s conflict cannot be resolved militarily, followed by the proposition that since the
conflict is essentially political in nature, the focus should be on finding an acceptable political arrangement instead of the military approach currently pursued.
However, it must be conceded that there is a nexus between political goals and the choice of means and tactics, which in Sri Lanka’s case has been determined by
the LTTE to be a separate state won through an armed conflict.
The leaders of the civil rights movement in the US realizing this nexus, consciously and deliberately decided on non-violence as the means to achieve their goals. By
contrast, the Sri Lankan Tamil community resolved with conscious deliberation to resort to an armed conflict to achieve their political goal of a separate state. Under
the circumstances, the choice for the Sri Lankan state has been to either to accept the creation of a separate state or to resist such a creation by neutralizing the means
to create it. Since the choice undoubtedly has to be for the latter course, there is no option but meet the military threat militarily. Furthermore, as long as both
positions remain unchanged, the armed conflict would continue. For there to be peace, therefore, either the Sri Lankan state has to accept the idea of a separate
state, or the LTTE has to abandon its goal and dismantle the means as well.
Since it is the LTTE that has set the goal and adopted the means, the only option available to the Sri Lankan state is to address the military capabilities of the LTTE
and weaken it to a point where the LTTE realizes that a separate state through armed conflict is not a realistic proposition. It was the reaching of such a point in the
dynamics of the Northern Ireland conflict that forced the IRA leadership to abandon violence and seek a negotiated solution. A similar realization dawned on the
Ache rebels when the tsunami of 2004 destroyed their military capabilities.
A similar dynamic has to occur in Sri Lanka for the LTTE to realize that the original goal is an unrealistic proposition. It would be only at such a point that the LTTE
would be prepared to consider alternatives to its original proposition. The weaker the LTTE, the more significant would be the shift from their original position.
Therefore, the military capabilities of the LTTE have a direct bearing on the nature and scope of the political arrangement that the LTTE would accept and which the
rest of the country would tolerate.
This military/political dynamic was reached in the Eastern Province. It was the neutralization of the military capabilities of the LTTE in the Eastern Province that has
paved the way for Peoples of the Eastern Province to exercise their civil and political rights. This and other developments taking place in the Eastern Province could
very well undermine the whole concept of a separate state; a notion that is clearly NOT viable without the Eastern Province.
GROUND REALITIES
An imperceptible but pertinent fact that is emerging is the demographic changes in the Eastern Province. These changes have gone unnoticed since the Census of
1981. The 2007 enumeration conducted by the Census and Statistics Department reveal that the Muslims are not only a majority in the province but also that they are
the majority in the Districts of Trincomalee and Ampara. This trend could lead to the Eastern Province becoming the territorial base of political power for the
Muslims.
According to the data in the Preliminary Report of 2007 the distribution within the province is: Muslims 40%, Tamils 38% and the Sinhalese 22%. According to the
Report the distribution by district is: Trincomalee District: 45.4% Muslim, 28.6% Sri Lankan Tamils, 25.4% Sinhalese; Batticaloa District: 25% Muslim, 74% Sri
Lankan Tamil, 0.5% Sinhalese; and Ampara District: 44% Muslim, 18.3% Sri Lankan Tamil, 37.5% Sinhalese. These ground realities could have a profound effect
on the short and long term trajectories of power sharing arrangements in Sri Lanka.
The immediate impact of this statistical data is that the Muslims are emerging as the most populous ethnic group in the Eastern Province, with the Sri Lankan Tamils
remaining as the most populous ethnic group in the Northern Province. Even though each province may evolve as a political base of each respective group, the fact
remains that the majorities of both communities reside outside these political bases. Under the circumstances, political arrangements based on territorial distribution
makes no sense.
Perhaps, it is the awareness of these developments that prompted the Muslim leadership to take the forthcoming Provincial Council elections seriously to the extent
that some of them have given up their seats in Parliament in order to contest the election. If not at the forthcoming election, there is a strong possibility that future
elections may return Muslim majorities with Muslim Chief Ministers in the Eastern Provincial Council.
There is therefore, a need to rethink the whole premise of regional devolution of political power. The alterations to the demographics in the Eastern Province
demonstrate the fluidity of population growths and distributions. Therefore, formulating political arrangements based on present ethnic or other concentrations could
with time be not only meaningless but also inappropriate. Changes in power bases could lead to new ethnic tensions; a sure formula for instability.
IMPACT OF ALTERED DEMOGRAPHICS ON THE NATIONAL QUESTION
If and when the Eastern Province becomes a non-Tamil political base, the foundation of a separate state of Tamil Eelam would be undermined because the very heart
of this concept was underpinned by the resources and potential of the Eastern Province. Furthermore, the ethnic mix of the Eastern Province together with the
concentration of Sri Lankan Tamils in the Northern Province was intended to mirror the scene in the rest of the country with the concentration of Sinhalese in the
South, thus creating the "image" that the country was divided between the Sinhalese and Tamils.
With the real possibility of losing the Eastern Province politically to another ethnic group, the political power base of the Tamils would be confined to the Northern
Province which by all accounts would be mono-ethnic. A separate state in such a context would have little or no attraction. Therefore, with these facts in view, there
is an urgent need to reconsider the relevance of former political arrangements contemplated in the light of existential realities.
One political arrangement that would be acceptable to the overwhelming majority in the light of this background would be to abandon the whole concept of ethno-
territorially based power sharing and seriously explore central power sharing. This would give all communities the opportunity to be represented in the governing
processes instead of regionally based power sharing; a concept that Sri Lanka has been forced to consider based on a demographic premise that has no relevance
today. It is vital that the APRC becomes aware of these emerging transformations if its deliberations are to have any meaning.
CONCLUSION
It is the LTTE that has set the goal of a separate state and it is the LTTE that has adopted violent means to realize it militarily. Since the Sri Lankan nation finds both
goal and means set by the LTTE unacceptable, Governments representing the Sri Lankan nation have no option but to respond to LTTE efforts militarily. Not to do
so would leave the military capabilities developed by the LTTE intact and the issue would remain open ended without finality and closure. For the military operations
to cease, either the LTTE has to dismantle its military capabilities voluntarily, or the Government has to neutralize it militarily.
A military approach is being pursued by the LTTE on the premise that the conditions that existed at the commencement of their endeavour to create a separate state,
still exist. The notion that the Northern and Eastern Provinces could form a political unit exists among the non-LTTE Sri Lankan Tamils as well. These positions long
held have no relevance in the context of two facts relating to the Eastern Province. The first being the reestablishment of the writ of the state and the second, being the
transformed demographics. Both facts make it necessary for political goals once conceived to be revisited.
The impact of the transformed demographics in the Eastern Province is that this province could emerge as a political base for the Muslims; a fact that may emerge
even as early as the forthcoming Provincial Council election. If the Eastern Province becomes a Muslim political base and the Northern Province becomes a Tamil
political base with the rest of the 7 provinces becoming a Sinhala political base, the political boundaries would become coterminous with ethnic concentrations.
Devolving power under such conditions is a sure recipe for instability as has happened with the former Yugoslavia, and more recently with Kosovo.
These developments would undermine the very foundation of a once conceived separate state consisting of the Northern and Eastern Provinces. Despite the change
in the scope of the original project, for the armed conflict to continue in order to create the Northern Province as a political base for Sri Lankan Tamils is senseless
because this is already an accepted fact. Despite this reality, if the LTTE continues the conflict, it can only mean that its intention is to create a separate state consisting
of the Northern Province all by itself.
While the conflict in Northern Ireland was resolved due to the IRA’s self realization that violence was not taking them any closer to their political goal, and the conflict
in Ache, Indonesia, was resolved because of the effect of the tsunami on the Free Aceh Movement/GAM’s military capabilities, the transformation in the
military/demographic dynamic in the Eastern Province will force the LTTE/Sri Lankan Tamils to consider alternatives hitherto not considered. Since these changing
circumstances are also underscored by the security implications of devolving power to ethnically based territorial units, Sri Lanka can find resolution to its conflict only
if its communities together explore arrangements where political power is shared by all at the Center.

'What harm if people have arms?'
D.M. Jayaratne

Plantation Industries Minister, D. M. Jayaratne believes that the Pillayan led TMVP is a reformed group and could rightfully take their place in the democratic
mainstream.
In an interview with The Sunday Leader, Jayaratne noted that it would also be good to create a Muslim unit in the Eastern Province in a true reflection of the ethno-
political diversity of the region and hailed the holding of elections in a province that was denied democratic institutions for long.
He advocated that Sri Lanka should indulge in honest devolution of power and blamed successive governments for having rendered Sri Lanka a donor dependent,
non-productive nation by destroying agricultural production.

Excerpts:
By Dilrukshi Handunnetti
Q: The government's military offensives to capture the north appear to have slowed down. What happened to the ambitious April-May deadline?
A: Different parties express different deadlines. The important issue is to achieve the objective of winning the war. By experience, we do know that schedules are
altered according to requirements. There are many reasons ranging from weather and disease to battle casualty rates that cause such alterations. The important thing is
to be realistic and not to overly worry about deadlines.
Q: The Ministry of Defence gives out impressive statistics on the LTTE cadres killed which naturally leads us to the assumption that the war would soon end for a
different reason - the elimination of the Tigers. How realistic are these figures?
A: I cannot speak about statistics because that is not my area. I have also not kept a tab on such. What I can vouch for is that the Sri Lankan forces are doing well
and people can expect the war to end sooner than most think.
Q: Is it enough to wage war? Where is the government's political process to end the conflict?
A: That is why the APRC is engaged in the exercise of coming up with a political solution. Divergent views have come up, but right now the decision is to fully
implement the 13th Amendment. That is to be the start. After all, that is part of the country's law and we can demonstrate our commitment to devolution by fully
implementing it. Hence, our efforts to establish democracy in the east before we move to the Northern Province.
Q: Dhammika Kithulgoda will assume office as the new Secretary General of Parliament this week. Isn't this a procedural wrong as the correct body to make such
appointment would be the Constitutional Council?
A: As per provisions of the constitution, it is true that the nomination to fill the vacancy should emerge from the Constitutional Council. There is no dispute over that.
But it is a dysfunctional body.
There is a crisis, and now we have a Select Committee going into the defects of the 17th Amendment through which the Constitutional Council (CC) was established.
First, the hastily introduced constitutional amendment needs to be strengthened and until that process is concluded, the establishment of the CC will create more
difficulties. It is best that the flaws in the amendment get rectified so that the CC also could be strengthened before it is reappointed.
Haste makes waste. That's what happened with the amendment. Now we should demonstrate a bit of patience and cover the loopholes. Though the CC is not
operational, there cannot be a vacuum. There is provision for the President to make appointments and that's exactly what is happening today. If there is no provision
to make a proper appointment due to some legal or administrative defect, there should be a temporary appointment. When things are sorted out, a permanent
appointment can be made. Or if the temporary appointee is suitable, he/she can be appointed permanently.
Parliament requires a secretary general and in the circumstances, the President had to ensure the continuance of the legislature. There will be anarchy otherwise. He
has fulfilled this need by appointing Dhammika Kithulgoda. Also, there are laws and more laws, but in a country not every law is implementable. For example, there
is a warrant of arrest on Velupillai Pirapaharan. Can we arrest him and produce him in court? We know that won't be easy.
It is law that all must abide by the constitution, but there is a separatist movement in the country threatening national security. This is why despite the existence of
statute books their applicability varies.
Q: But the nominations for the CC appointments have already come and isn't this the path that no government should consciously tread?
A: As I said, there are practical difficulties. If we can agree on the amendments to the 17th Amendment, we can quickly amend it. That will also strengthen the CC.
This process won't take much longer.
Q: The CC is rendered dysfunctional on the basis that a Select Committee report on the 17th Amendment is awaited. Isn't this a time buying exercise?
A: The truth is that there is a school of thought that the much-hyped constitutional amendment has done more harm than good. It was quickly introduced and now we
have to deal with not just the repercussions but also take remedial measures.
Q: The government held the Batticaloa local authority election and now in quick succession, has announced the Eastern Provincial Council poll. Amidst reports of
unsettlement of refugees, tension and violence, do you think the situation is conducive for holding any election there?
A: For nearly two decades, the eastern people were denied their democratic rights. They were ruled at the point of a gun, made to move like gypsies as violence
erupted in different places. I thank President Rajapakse for giving the necessary political leadership to the armed forces to liberate the east. As a result, it became
possible to hold local authority elections in the Batticaloa District.
Generally violence taints all our elections but not this one. It is therefore an important political milestone. The moment has come to move from the local election to the
provincial level. It is a very positive sign that the UNP, UPFA, JVP and independent groups have entered the fray. To ensure democracy, it is necessary that all
shades of opinion be expressed and to create space for even political outcasts to enter the mainstream.
The UNP is demanding that the Pillayan Group be disarmed. On the contrary, the JVP is demanding not to. But this group's carrying of arms did not result in a single
killing during the election. The truth of the matter is all the small groups operating in the area carry arms. If disarmed, they will be under severe threat. There is no
evidence of the use of weapons in a negative manner.
Take the armed forces and the police. They also carry weapons. In Switzerland, every person is issued a personal weapon. But do they all go berserk and break the
law? So what harm is there if people have arms? We also had weapons at home but they were never used. They were largely a status symbol. It is the wrongful use
of weapons we should object to. What matters is the attitude towards arms and their use.
Q: Is it your belief that the Pillayan Group is evolving from a militant outfit to a democratic force? Critics allege that the government's real intention is to hand over the
Eastern Province entirely to the LTTE breakaway group. You made Batticaloa a cakewalk for Pillayan.
A: I believe he has reformed. There is a resurgence of democracy in the east. That's why people participated in the recent election. As for Pillayan, let me say that
people don't remain the same. Violent people can become democratic. There are many historic examples to cite in support of my view. Pillayan has proved his
commitment to democracy and has willingly subjected himself to the election process. Let him and his people have that space.
Don't forget it is not just Pillayan who has erred. Most politicians are guilty of something or the other. If you take Karuna, he broke away because he eventually got
disenchanted with militancy. We have to maintain that democratic space for the likes of Karuna and Pillayan and make this an inclusive process.
Q: Are you justifying the presence of the Pillayan Group in mainstream politics today, despite its reputation as a militant outfit?
A: I believe he is reformed, as have his cadres. I won't call it a militant group. Even if they are not, the people have pushed them towards democracy and responsible
public office. The voters have made it difficult for the group to veer away from repressive politics by conferring power on them. It is a commitment the group will have
to uphold.
Q: The CP and the LSSP have submitted nominations for the eastern poll as the Left Front. As General Secretary of the Peoples' Alliance, is this permissible?
A: Legally speaking, there is no People's Alliance anymore. What remains is the UPFA. That's the final registration we have had. However, the UPFA was formed
between the PA and JVP and the latter has returned to the opposition. What remains in the government is the PA party cluster. That's the reality.
The registered party is the UPFA. As per registration, the CP and the LSSP have the opportunity to take independent political decisions like this one. It would have
been better if they contested together as one group. But this is the mentality of most small parties. They go it alone when wanting to increase the voter base. Perhaps
this is why they wanted to contest in this manner. I don't find it objectionable.
Q: The President has advocated the full implementation of the 13th Amendment as the first step to solving the ethnic conflict. Does this mean that the government is
prepared to devolve land and police powers to the periphery?
A: So far, these powers have not been devolved. The current provincial councils do not enjoy them. I think this matter needs to be discussed and a decision has to be
made. The APRC will be the best place for that discussion to happen. My personal view is that we should indulge in an honest exercise of devolving power.
Q: What if the APRC were to recommend the merger of the northeast and a separate Muslim unit in the east? Will that be acceptable?
A: I honestly don't see anything wrong in granting a separate Muslim unit. After all, we are considering the political dynamics of a rich and diverse province. That
diversity should be politically recognised and visible. Now there is the Pillayan Group representing the Tamils. There are Sinhala dominant areas as well as
predominantly Muslim areas. Muslims largely inhabit the coastal areas. I think that might prove a truly unique experience. This provincial council can actually become
the finest political example to the country, in terms of ethnic diversity and unity.
Q: Commerce Minister Bandula Gunawardena was recently quoted as having said that a loaf of bread would soon reach Rs. 100. Though labelled an elitist food, it is
actually what the poorest of the poor consume. Why has the government failed to introduce some kind of price control over essentials making people suffer
enormously?
A: It is true that the price of rice and coconuts are high. Bread is almost unaffordable. But let me say this. Sri Lanka in 1952 had a reserve of 300 million Sterling
Pounds in the Westminster Bank. It was possible to feed all the people easily. After all, the population was also low.
Instead, we introduced a culture of subsidies and handouts. We began by giving two measures of rice and reduced it to one when we could not sustain the imprudent
practice. There is no country that does this. And what do we have as a result? We provide free education, healthcare facilities, Samurdhi as poor relief, housing
facilities, textbooks and uniforms. Where in the world can you find a country like this one? Nowhere. Only we have this disastrous dole culture.
Naturally there is no appreciation. We give free education and students fight at universities instead of studying. In other countries, people have to pay through their
noses to obtain higher education and there is a value to the education as a result. Students know at what price they enter prestigious universities and colleges; so they
do not take that opportunity for granted.
On the other hand, we have crippling strikes demanding wage hikes. We have the most irresponsible public service. We were once a self-sufficient country. We
never begged. We had a surplus. Today, we are forever carrying the begging bowl.
All successive governments are responsible for this plight. We have created a lazy nation and instead of empowering them, we have impoverished them. That's why I
support the surging prices. Now people know, if they want things cheap they must contribute to the manufacturing or production process. All our preaching about
returning to our agrarian roots did not work. Now hunger and deprivation is making them become productive. In the end, we will recreate a productive nation. In a
way, we are going back to our roots.
I am inundated with requests for coconut plants, lands to cultivate. Paddy fields are now being cultivated. We should restrict food imports, export the surplus and
become self-sufficient. We are moving in the right direction.

The 17th Amendment
“Public service became the ground for the political spoils and efforts were made to politicise the public service by granting full political rights to all public servants.
They could now be mobilised for support of the election campaign of the politician. Some were enlisted as party members and even chosen as candidates. Their
service conditions were safeguarded since they could come back to the service if they were defeated.”______________________________
by R. M. B. Senanayake
(April 08, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The 17th Amendment to the Constitution, which was passed last week, is not a satisfactory solution to the problem of
patronage in appointments to the public service. Whether it would lead to any improvement in the present situation is doubtful. Self-interested behaviour by ruling
politicians has increased enormously since 1956.
In the beginning it was only a trickle but now it is a stream of corruption and abuse of power. Why and how did this situation arise? Not because of the open
economy as some say. But rather because the checks and balances and structures introduced at the time of Independence under the Soulbury Constitution were done
away with.
The earlier institutional constraints on selfish opportunistic behaviour of ruling politicians were buttressed by a politically neutral public service, which acted fairly and
without discrimination on grounds of party affiliation, without discriminating in favour of the ruling party supporters. The public servant stood apart from the politician
at arms length. The public servants who conducted the elections displayed commendable fairness and maintained the integrity of the process according to the
provisions of the law.
But the politicians railed against the public service raising various battle cries like the allegation against the former Civil Service that it was a Brahmin caste and that the
higher administrative posts should be thrown open to everyone. They accused the public servants of being an obstacle to development. These were all self-serving
allegations made with a view to grabbing absolute power to the Ministers. So the politicians dismantled those structures that ensured independence and fair play in the
conduct of public business.
Public service became the ground for the political spoils and efforts were made to politicise the public service by granting full political rights to all public servants. They
could now be mobilised for support of the election campaign of the politician. Some were enlisted as party members and even chosen as candidates. Their service
conditions were safeguarded since they could come back to the service if they were defeated. With such institutional safeguards disappearing the stage was set for
one-party government, which would turn out to be a tyranny.
The only check on the behaviour of individual politician is now his own conscience if he had one. Has the 17th Amendment made any worthwhile change? The
composition of the Constitutional Council is certainly a blunder as pointed out by the Sihala Urumaya. If three members are to represent the ethnic minorities who will
represent the majority race they ask rightly. We are no doubt a plural society. The central question for such a society is who takes care of the common good. The
common good cannot be left to emerge from the clash of conflicting interests. There is no invisible hand here.
A pluralist group whether based on ethnicity, religion or even some cause like that of environmental protectionists, is concerned with a single cause only. Its strength
lies not in numbers but in the singleness of purpose. What is needed in a body like the Constitutional council is an ethos where they act in the common good, not the
interests of any ethnic group be it a majority or a minority. That is why such institutions have to be outside the political process in order to perform for the common good.
Of course there will be those who say that the public service should be under the control of the political Executive to enable them to implement their policies. But
there are also other values like the need for a meritocracy in a plural society, a feature that was grasped by Lee Kuan Yew learning from the Sri Lankan failures after
1956. Since 1972 the political Executive had untrammelled power over the public service and what effective executive action has resulted except to create anarchy.- Sri Lanka Guardian