SLAF has valid reasons to target Prabakaran-B.Raman

The SLAF has valid reasons to target Prabakaran.

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''He has killed more political leaders----Sinhalese as well as Tamils--- than the leader of any other terrorist organisation in the world.
He has been responsible for innumerable deaths of innocent civilians. If the Sri Lankan
authorities conclude that he has to be eliminated in order to stop the bloodshed, nobody can
question their right to undertake a decapitation strike. '' B.RAMAN
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Iran to Fund Sri Lankan Arms Purchases
International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 303
by B. Raman
"Reliable Tamil sources also say that about 12 to 15 members of the Pakistani Armed Forces, including four or five from the Pakistan Air Force, are stationed in Colombo to guide the Sri Lankan security forces in their counter-insurgency operations. The Pakistan Air Force officers have reportedly been guiding the SLAF officers in effectively carrying out air-mounted operations against the LTTE. They have also been reportedly involved in drawing up plans for a decapitation strike from the air, with bunker-buster bombs, to kill Prabakaran.The reported posting of Air Vice-Marshal Shehzad Chaudhry, who had handled in the past air-mounted operations against the Baloch freedom-fighters, is expected to further step up the Pakistani involvement in the use of air strikes to subdue the LTTE and intimidate the Tamil population."-Extract from my article dated 18-8-06 titled RETIRED PAF OFFICER TO ASSIST IN ANTI-LTTE OPERATIONS (Paper no. 1916 18.08.2006)-

RETIRED PAF OFFICER TO ASSIST IN ANTI-LTTE OPERATIONSINTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.106By B.Raman

The "Dawn" of Karachi has reported on August 17,2006, that Col. (retd) Bashir Wali, who escaped an attempt allegedly by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to assassinate him on August 14,2006, would be returning to Pakistan next week and is expected to be succeeded by Air Vice-Marshal Shehzad Chaudhry as the new Pakistani High Commissioner to Sri Lanka.
2. Col.Wali has already completed his two-year term on June 30,2006, and was already planning to return to Pakistan next week even before the attempt to kill him. His return has, therefore, nothing to do with the assassination attempt.
3. The LTTE's attempt to kill him coincided with the reported arrival of two shipments of arms and ammunition for Sri Lanka from Pakistan. In recent months, the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) has stepped up its air strikes against the LTTE positions----initially in the Eastern Province and subsequently even in the Northern Province. The LTTE finds itself greatly handicapped in countering the air strikes due to inadequate anti-aircraft capability. Whatever little capability it has, has been kept reserved for the protection of its headquarters and Prabakaran, its leader.
4. Taking advantage of the lack of retaliatory fire, SLAF planes have been repeatedly bombing not only the LTTE's ground position, but also its naval vessels, inflicting heavy casualties and damage. They have also been indiscriminately bombing the civilian population, suspected of supporting the LTTE or being sympathetic to it. There has been a large number of civilian casualties as a result of the indiscriminate air strikes resorted to by the SLAF.
5. In a shocking incident on August 15,2006, 61 young children, all girls, were slaughtered by a plane of the SLAF in Mullaithivu in the Vanni area of the Northern Province. The Sri Lankan authorities, including the Sri Lankan Deputy High Commission in Chennai, have strongly denied the allegations that the people killed were civilians and tried to project them as child soldiers of the LTTE. However, international observers, who have visited the site of the massacre, have refuted the claims of the Sri Lankan authorities.
6. Since Mr.Mahinda Rajapakse took over as the President in November last year, more innocent civilians have been killed by the Sri Lankan security forces than in the past. Pakistan, which has already been playing a discreet role in assisting the Sri Lankan security forces in their operations against the LTTE even before Mr.Rajapakse became the President, has further increased its involvement in the counter-insurgency operations. In fact, the LTTE has been alleging since 1997 that Pakistani military and counter-insurgency experts are attached with the Sri Lankan military units operating against the LTTE. This was denied by the Sri Lankan and Pakistani authorities.
7. According to the Sri Lankan media, about 200 Sri Lankan armed forces personnel of different ranks are presently undergoing training in different training institutions of Pakistan. Reliable Tamil sources also say that about 12 to 15 members of the Pakistani Armed Forces, including four or five from the Pakistan Air Force, are stationed in Colombo to guide the Sri Lankan security forces in their counter-insurgency operations. The Pakistan Air Force officers have reportedly been guiding the SLAF officers in effectively carrying out air-mounted operations against the LTTE. They have also been reportedly involved in drawing up plans for a decapitation strike from the air, with bunker-buster bombs, to kill Prabakaran.
8. The reported posting of Air Vice-Marshal Shehzad Chaudhry, who had handled in the past air-mounted operations against the Baloch freedom-fighters, is expected to further step up the Pakistani involvement in the use of air strikes to subdue the LTTE and intimidate the Tamil population.
9. Since the Government of India has not been able to meet the military requirements of Sri Lanka due to feared opposition from the regional political parties in Tamil Nadu, the Sri Lankan Government has been constrained to shop for arms and ammunition elsewhere, including Pakistan and China. While India cannot justifiably object to it, the increasing involvement of Pakistan in the counter-insurgency operations is a matter of serious concern from the point of view of India's national security.
10. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has always coveted a strong presence in Sri Lanka as providing a useful window on South India where many of India's nuclear and space establishments are located. A presence in Sri Lanka also enables it and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) to have one more base for their operations to sponsor jihadi terrorism in South India. The ISI also looks upon its increasing presence in Sri Lanka as a counter to India's increasing presence in Afghanistan.
11. Under the influence of the Pakistani advisers, the Sri Lankan Government's counter-insurgency operations are becoming increasingly ruthless. There have been many instances of targeted killing of innocent civilians through actions on the ground as well as from the air. This will only drive more Tamils into the arms of the LTTE.
12. The massacre of 61 Tamil girls through an air strike has inflamed public opinion in Tamil Nadu. It has been further angered by the attempts of the Sri Lankan Deputy High Commission in Chennai to justify it on the blatantly false ground that the people killed were child soldiers. The shocking assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE in May 1991 created a revulsion for the LTTE in the minds of the Tamils of Tamil Nadu. This revulsion will stand in danger of being diluted as a result of the indiscriminate killing of civilians by the Sri Lankan Armed Forces, with the help of their Pakistani advisers. )
according to reliable Sri Lankan sources, the Government of President Mahinda Rajapakse has requested the Government of Iran through a Malaysian Muslim of Indian/Sri Lankan origin for an urgent loan at low interest to enable it to purchase trainer and electronic surveillance aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles in replacement of those lost during the recent ground-cum-air attack launched by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) at the Anuradhapura air base of the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF). It has also requested Iran for the supply of oil and gas at concessional rates on credit. These requests are expected to be followed up personally by President Rajapakse during a planned visit to Iran shortly.
2. The Malaysian Muslim, who is acting as the intermediary, is a close personal friend of A. Q. Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist, and had come into contact with key Iranian officials in the past through A. Q. Khan.
3. The Rajapakse Government has also requested Pakistan for the replacement of the unmanned aerial vehicles destroyed by the LTTE. Some of them had been given in the past by Pakistan and some others by Israel. It has also requested China urgently for the latest radar and other air defence equipment.
4. Pakistani Commandoes from its Special Services Group (SSG) have been training Sri Lankan Commandoes and some anti-LTTE Tamils in secret training camps in Southern Sri Lanka as a prelude to the expected military offensive in the Wanni area of the Northern Province. Some of the Sri Lankan commandoes had also been to Pakistan for training in the SSG training institutions.
5. In the meanwhile, the SLAF, with the help of Pakistani and Ukrainian pilots, has stepped up its efforts for a decapitation strike to kill Prabakaran. A monitoring station to locate the hide-out of Prabakaran has been set up at an unidentified location in the Eastern Province with the help of Pakistan's Directorate of Military Intelligence (DGMI) to identify the location of Prabakaran's hide-out.
6. In an interview to the "Sunday Observer" of November 11, 2007, the SLAF Commander Air Marshal Roshan Goonatilleke said ` that it was not a difficult task for the SLAF to get at Prabhakaran as he was confined to a very limited area. He added that, "We will find him somehow."

Paper no. 2456 13-Nov.-2007
Sri Lankan Tamil Cause: An Uncertain Future
International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 304
by B. Raman
With the death of S. P. Thamilchelvan, the head of the political wing of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), under mysterious circumstances on November 2, 2007, the Sri Lankan Tamil cause faces an uncertain future.
2. Thamilselvan, the presumed No.3 in the pecking order of the LTTE leadership after Prabakaran and Pottu Amman, the chief of the intelligence wing of the LTTE, was the only leader not involved in any major act of terrorism either in Sri Lankan or Indian territory. The direct involvement of Prabakaran and Pottu Amman in many acts of terrorism in Indian territory, including in the brutal assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, the former Prime Minister, in May 1991, would rule out for ever the Government of India having anything to do with the LTTE so long as the perpetrators of Rajiv's assassination continue to head the organisation and seek to control the destiny of the Sri Lankan Tamils.
3. P. Nadesan, a former Sri Lankan Police officer, whom Prabakaran has nominated as the successor to Thamilchelvan, is not a leader of any calibre. He is essentially a stooge of Prabakaran, who has not given any evidence so far of having an independent mind of his own.
4. As demonstrated by the LTTE's spectacular raid on the Anuradhapura air base of the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) on October 22, 2007, the LTTE's morale, motivation and capacity for resilience are still strong despite the set-backs suffered by it in the Eastern Province and the damage, which the Sri Lankan authorities claim to have inflicted on its Navy and commercial ships, which were being used for gun-running. Morale, motivation and resilience can keep the LTTE fighting for years, but they alone would not be sufficient for making the Tamil cause prevail. The Tamil cause cannot prevail without a plurality of political leadership in the LTTE, with a vision of what is achievable and what is not.
5. As an insurgent-cum-terrorist organisation, the LTTE is any day far superior to Al Qaeda, but as a political or ideological organisation it is far inferior to Al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden is a blood-thirsty terrorist leader who has no qualms about killing not only non-Muslims, but even his co-religionists, but one has to grudgingly admit that he has allowed a plurality of leaders to emerge in his organisation so that it does not have to depend only on him for its future successes.
6. That is why many analysts agree that the elimination of bin Laden will not mean the end of Al Qaeda. Other leaders will take over and carry on with its operations. Prabakaran is an extremely jealous political leader, who has not allowed alternate political leaders of any stature to emerge either in the LTTE itself or in the Sri Lankan Tamil community. Thamilchelvan, who might have been able to take over the leadership and keep the LTTE fighting, is gone. Pottu Amman may be a brilliant and dreaded intelligence chief, who knew how to kill with precision, but he has given no evidence of any political standing, which would enable him to rally round the Tamils after the death of Prabakaran. There have been unconfirmed reports that the dynasty bug has bitten the LTTE too and that Prabakaran is trying to groom his son, who grew up in the West, as his successor. Even he won't be able to mobilise the Tamils.
7. Thus, if the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF) succeeds in its projected aim of decapitating the LTTE by killing Prabakaran ---either through its own efforts or with the help of Pakistani and Ukrainian pilots--- that could mark the beginning of the withering away of the LTTE as a terrorist organisation. That has been the fate of all terrorist organisations over-dominated by a single person. That was the fate of the organisation headed by Carlos. After his arrest by the French intelligence in August, 1994, it has withered away. That was also the fate of other ideological organisations such as the Baader-Meinhof and the Red Army faction of Germany. One can also cite many other instances of what happens to an insurgent or terrorist organisation when its leader does not tolerate the emergence of other leaders.
8. The SLAF has valid reasons to target Prabakaran. He has killed more political leaders----Sinhalese as well as Tamils--- than the leader of any other terrorist organisation in the world. He has been responsible for innumerable deaths of innocent civilians. If the Sri Lankan authorities conclude that he has to be eliminated in order to stop the bloodshed, nobody can question their right to undertake a decapitation strike.
9. A successful decapitation strike may not mean the immediate end of the bloodbath. In fact, more blood will be shed by the angry and frustrated followers of Prabakaran in the short term, which may last about two years or so. Thereafter, the inevitable process of withering-away will set in and the LTTE will cease to exist as a terrorist organisation in the medium and long-term.
10. It is in the interest of not only Sri Lanka, but also India and the rest of the international community that the LTTE ceases to exist as a terrorist organisation. The Sinhalese majority in Sri Lanka would also want to put an end to the LTTE as a political organisation so that there is no well-motivated organisation which defends the aspirations of the Tamils. If the Sri Lankan authorities succeed in putting an end to the LTTE as a political organisation too, Sri Lanka will be back to the pre-1983 years when a highly chauvinistic Sinhalese majority rode rough-shod over the rights of the Tamils
11. Make no mistake about it. President Mahinda Rajapakse and other Sinhalese leaders are no lovers of Tamils. They may smile and smile, but they would like nothing better than to crush the LTTE even as a political organisation so that the Tamils could be ultimately reduced to the status of the Red Indians of the US.
12. India has a moral responsibility to see that while terrorism ends in Sri Lanka, the Sinhalese majority is not able to take the country back to the pre-1983 days. A reversion to the status quo ante can be prevented by preserving the assets of the LTTE as a political organisation, which is able to articulate and fight politically for the interests of the Tamils without degenerating once again into a terrorist organisation shunned by the international community. The elimination of Thamilchelvan reduces India's options in working for such a political organisation, but this should not discourage India from interacting closely with different sections of the Tamil community in Sri Lanka and abroad in order to see that the Sri Lankan authorities do not succeed in extinguishing the Tamil political struggle for their legitimate rights.
13. President Rajapakse is no different from Prabakaran in certain matters. Both live in their own self-created world of illusions. Prabakaran thinks he can still achieve an independent Tamil Eelam despite the attrition of capability and international support. Rajapakse thinks that he can crush the LTTE militarily and impose a dictated peace on the Tamils. So long as Prabakaran is alive, the LTTE will keep fighting like a ferocious animal. It might have lost territory in the Eastern Province, but territorial control is never an important factor for an insurgent or terrorist organisation. We saw in Afghanistan that the loss of territorial control did not mean the end of the Taliban. It has staged a spectacular come-back. Morale and motivation are more important than territorial control. Both remain intact and as strong as ever as one saw at Anuradhapura.
14. If Mr. Rajapakse is an intelligent political leader with a vision and with a recognition of his responsibility to look after the interests of all Sri Lankans---whether Sinhalese or Tamil--- he would have accelerated the search for a mutually acceptable political solution, even while maintaining his counter-terrorism operations. He has abandoned the search for a political solution, thinking that a military victory is not far away.
15. Caught between the illusions of two political leaders, the prospects for a negotiated political solution have further receded. It is not only the Tamil community, but even Sri Lanka as a whole, which faces an uncertain future. The calculated inactivism of the Government of India is contributing to a drift, which could prove detrimental to India's interests. Public opinion in Tamil Nadu should be more active in persuading the Government of India to see that under the pretext of ending the terrorism of the LTTE, the Sinhalese majority does not once again crush the legitimate Tamil political aspirations.