ENB News 260208

The Kosovo debate in Sri Lanka
by Dayan Jayatilleka
"An independent Kosovo, recognised by major Western powers, is in effect the first major fruit of the ideas behind R2P…Appropriately Kosovo’s emergence
coincided with the establishment in New York of the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protest…backed by the Canadian, British and Dutch governments,
among others…The Organisation’s mission is the spread of R2P principles...An R2P generation is coming. The prising open of the world is slow work, but from
Kosovo to Cuba it continues."
- Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune, Feb 21, 2008, p.6
The Kosovo debate contains a microcosm of all that is right and wrong about Sri Lankan society. Some argue that in order to avoid a Kosovo outcome, all it takes is
to "Just Say No" to the West and the outside world in general, while the others contend that what is needed is to "Just Say Yes", or in a more nuanced variant,
"Never Say Never" to the West (especially to the Big Boys) and the outside world. The two responses correspond to the political antipodes of the xenophobes and
the appeasers.
Both extremes are wrong, in twin senses: their interpretation and application of Kosovo, as well as their recommendation of what is to be done to combat such a
danger.
The key to understanding the reality of the world, resides in a debate between two concepts that dates back to the year 1915. In that year, the young Leon Trotsky
advocated a visionary slogan of a United States of Europe, perhaps the earliest pre-figuration of today’s European Union. He based this on an understanding of the
underlying unity of the capitalist world system, a unity that to his mind superseded its differentiation. The slightly older Lenin replied by emphasising the opposite
aspect: though it may be one system, that system is characterised by underlying unevenness, and this unevenness itself develops unevenly, spasmodically. This was his
theory of uneven development. Because of uneven development, the processes in each country had a high degree of autonomy, and though the world system was a
single chain, that chain had stronger and weaker links.
What is the relevance of all this to Kosovo, and more pressingly, to Sri Lanka? Though the world is indeed globalised, the distribution of power is uneven. Kosovo is
located in Europe, and Europe is, and has been for a very long time, among the strongest links in the chain of the world system, which is of course dominated by the
USA and its European allies. Sri Lanka is in Asia, and Asia has long been a weaker link in that chain. Today, the geopolitical and economic tendencies towards multi
-polarity manifest themselves more in Asia than anywhere else.
We are also aware, at least since Antonio Gramsci, that the state and society are configured differently in the East than in the West. We in Asia collectively perceive
our state to have a vastly greater antiquity and continuity, to be more organic, than that of the West. The combination of old and new consciousness - this perception
of a living state with an ancient lineage, together with the recent memory of colonial occupation and humiliation - make an Asian society’s attachment to the state and
it response to the threat of dismemberment, a far more deeply felt and violently contested affair than in the West. This is why a wise, war weary US General,
completely oblivious to Gramsci, came to the conclusion after Korea: "Never get involved in a land war in Asia." The West forgets that lesson at its peril.
What the West can do in Europe it cannot do outside: when it was rolling back insurgents in post-war Greece, it was losing to Communists in China. This is true even
today: the Shans and Karens will not have an independent state carved out for them in Myanmar.
Sri Lanka has therefore to engage in classic balancing off of those powers, Asian and European, which stand for a strong sovereign state, against those which strive to
weaken the state in a reversion to Wilsonian notions of self-determination. Such a classic, realist balance of power strategy can work because we are located in Asia,
not Europe.
However, no outside power can guarantee that which we ourselves are unwilling to protect. Therefore "balance of power" alone will not do, it has to be backed up
with a version of "deterrence". It must be clear that we shall not withdraw our forces, we shall not capitulate, we shall not permit any alien forces upon our soil, and
any one who hopes to will face a fight, more unconventional than conventional, from a two hundred thousand strong armed force and many thousands, perhaps tens
of thousands of radicalised youth.
The problem arises with those who would resort to such strategies of "deterrence" without its concomitant of the "balance of power". Sri Lanka can leverage its Asian
location, balancing off certain powers against Western interventionism, but it can balance off the entirety of the outside world, West and East, far away and near, and
base itself on a strategy of domestic deterrence, nor can it balance off certain Asian powers against others at the same time that it has to balance off the West!
Let me translate: Sri Lanka must adopt a policy of self–reliance and must not be strategically dependent upon any outside power. Sri Lanka must possess and display
the political will to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty "by any means necessary" (as Malcolm X famously said) against anyone who would threaten it.
However, Sri Lanka cannot rely on deterrence alone, unlike Cuba in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR. Until the USSR existed, Cuba combined deterrence
with balance of power, but after it collapsed, Cuba was safe only because it was far too hard a nut to crack, with an armed people, and hundreds of thousands who
had fought successfully against South Africa, in Angola.
Sri Lanka, another island in the tropical sun, can gain inspiration from Cuba but cannot imitate it. The primary reason is the difference in the internal political and
economic systems. These differences correspond to the different histories, characteristics and collective consciousness of our respective peoples.
The reality of Sri Lanka is that it is a divided society, with an entrenched multiparty democracy and an open economy. As the fate of the SLFP government of 1977
proves, the electorate will not long tolerate an economic model which makes for public privation. The Sri Lankan electorate is so protean that it also elected in 2001,
an appeasing, Chamberlain-like Prime Minister, and gave him a sizeable vote at the last Presidential elections - though recent opinion polls render almost indubitable
his defeat at the next one.

One sharp difference between Sri Lanka and Cuba is that the latter does not have an internal war (though it did have to combat counter-revolutionary bands for
years), and certainly not an internal war of an ethnic-separatist character. Cuba’s armed forces could concentrate its energies on fighting the external enemy.
If Sri Lanka inevitably has to resist on two fronts, internal and external, so be it. However, it cannot resist on the "internal –external" and "external – external" fronts.
In other words, Sri Lanka cannot abandon a policy of balancing some powers against others, in favour of a policy of taking on all comers, far and near! If it is to be
argued that in the 1980s Sri Lanka fought cross-border separatist terrorism and eventually retrieved its sovereignty, rolling back a regional intervention, it must be
recalled that in the 1980s Sri Lanka was not facing the concerted pressure it is today, from the West.
In the minds of some, the answer would be not merely a regime change, but a system change, which renders Sri Lanka economically "self-sufficient" (actually
autarchic), and mobilises its people to fight the separatist enemy, domestic traitors and reactionaries, and all external comers. This strategy, in which patriotic or
national liberation struggle and social revolution combine, is but a collapsible fantasy, which overlooks economic and geopolitical reality. Few Sri Lankan ultra-
nationalists know that Cuba has more than five hundred foreign companies doing business there (since it is one of the world’s most stable and peaceful investment
climates) and also enjoys an inflow of over a million tourists per year. A Hobbesian Sri Lanka, locked in a war of all against all, will be unable to sustain itself. Internal
discontent and repression, external isolation and cross-border intervention, will constitute the conditions for Tamil Eelam and its recognition.
Sri Lanka must never take as axiomatic the notion that India will never countenance a Tamil Eelam because it will be a danger to India itself, given the proximity of
Tamil Nadu. India helped in the birth of Bangladesh irrespective of any threat of West Bengal breaking away from India to join with Bangladesh! India is rightly
confident that no one will want to break away from a quasi-federal economic superpower with a secular state.
Sri Lanka must also understand that there is a limit to the assistance that India can give us, given the fact of 50 million Tamils in Tamil Nadu, and the coalitional-
regional character of governments in Delhi.
These two factors mean that Sri Lanka cannot take India for granted, it cannot put all its eggs in the Indian basket, but it cannot afford to antagonise or lose India. At
the minimum it has to keep India on a spectrum of supportive to benignly neutral. While being realistic about the possible limits of Indian support, and not acquiescing
in any "Dog in the Manger" attitudes from anyone or anywhere, Sri Lanka must strive all the time to maximise the support it can obtain from India.
The Tigers are dug in on their home turf, taking heavily casualties but playing for time, hoping for a mini-July 83 which, in the YouTube age can trigger a Kosovo;
hoping to influence the Indian elections; or hoping to influence a possible change in Washington DC, which can indeed transform the entire terrain on which the game
is played. Their "home turf" advantages must be offset and their international strategies countered by us. This requires building the broadest possible domestic,
regional and international united fronts: coalitions that include anti-Tiger Tamils internally, and India, China, and Russia, externally.
The finest political strategist of modernity, Lenin, concluded at the tail end of his life, in an article published in Pravda on March 4th 1923, that: " In the last analysis,
the outcome of the struggle will be determined by the fact that Russia, India, China etc account for the overwhelming majority of the population of the globe". This is
the decisive weight that Sri Lanka must leverage and bring to bear, to avoid a Kosovo, on behalf of our fighting men and women in the battlefield, and future
generations. Neither China nor Russia will support Sri Lanka in a manner and to an extent which runs contrary to the view of India. If it is a choice between India and
Sri Lanka, they will choose India, as of course will the USA, and anyone I can think of.
The unravelling of Yugoslavia began with the abolition in the late 1980s by Slobodan Milosevic, under pressure from Serbian ultranationalists, of the autonomy of the
Province of Kosovo which had been instituted by Tito in 1974. When Serbia offered the fullest autonomy in the last round of negotiations a few months ago, there
was no one accept it. The refusal to defend and retain provincial autonomy resulted in the loss of a whole country (Yugoslavia) and finally, part (Kosovo) of the
successor state (Serbia).
The lesson of the break-up of Yugoslavia is clear: federalism along ethnic lines is dangerous but those who reject an autonomous province may contribute to an
independent state. Both ethno-federalism and centralised unitarism are dangerously centrifugal, while the most safely centripetal seems to be a unitary state with
adequate devolution of powers making for autonomy.
While it is the armed forces and youth of Sri Lanka, backing our political will and our sense of a unique historical destiny, that that stand between us and a Kosovo
outcome, it is not only those factors that do so. It is also India that stands between us and the Kosovo/R2P interventionism, as our outer perimeter. Those Sri Lankan
elements which block or delay the minimum degree of devolution on the ground that is needed to make India tilt to the maximum towards us and our military effort,
are as unpatriotic and helpful to the cause of Kosovo type interventionism as those elements in the Tamil Diaspora who openly advocate such an outcome.
(This article expresses the strictly personal views of the writer)

Blake rules out UN peace keeping mission in Sri Lanka
US Ambassador Robert Blake recently ruled out the possibility of a UN peace keeping mission in Sri Lanka. In an interview in the latest edition of BENCHMARK
Blake had stated "I don’t think so. First of all, there is no peace to keep! So that’s a bit of a far-fetched scheme. In terms of a role for the UN, it has to be requested
by the member state in question. I have not heard that the Government is interested in any UN force at this state – quite the contrary. They’ve taken quite an active
role to oppose, for example, any role by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, who was interested in setting up an office here.
Excerpts of the interview
BENCHMARK: Would you support the Government’s short, sharp, strategic war to eliminate terrorism?
BLAKE: I don’t think that such an outcome is possible. I don’t know what that means really. We don’t believe that a military solution is really possible. Prabhakaran
has survived up to now, since the late ‘70s, and he has shown himself to be very adept and resilient, and I think he continues to be so. We certainly don’t have any
great affection for Prabhakaran, but we feel that the ultimate answer lies in a political solution, and that is why we are encouraging the Government to pursue that path.
BENCHMARK: Despite the liberation of the Eastern Province, the Pillaiyan group continues to practise terror tactics there. So are some forms of terror acceptable?
BLAKE: No. No forms of terror are okay. And we have expressed our concern over all the paramilitaries, not simply the Pillaiyan group, or the Karuna faction. And
again, we think the long-term solution to this situation in the east is to not allow these groups to bear arms, and for them to be a part of the political process, and I
think the Government is moving in that direction. I was pleased to see the other day that PAFFREL, which is a group that is going to provide some monitors, and is
already monitoring conditions out there, said that the Pillaiyan group has laid down their arms, and are not intimidating people in the east. So that is a very good sign if
it is true, and I hope it is.
BENCHMARK: Successive Governments have shied away from banning the LTTE, probably because this would effectively forestall any future prospect of talks.
But with the present Government’s war on terror, why not take that step too?
BLAKE: I’m not sure that the Government will gain much in banning the LTTE at this stage. I think they have already made their point. Banning the LTTE may be
interpreted in the international community as taking a further step away from a political solution. Obviously, it is up to the Government to decide what to do.
BENCHMARK: President Mahinda Rajapaksa has expressed a wish that Prabhakaran be captured alive, with a view to extraditing him to India.
BLAKE: Well, he is widely believed to be responsible for the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. So certainly, that would be fine. I’m sure he would get a fair trial in India,
and we have no concerns over that. The question is whether you will be able to capture him alive or not? I’m not sure if that is possible or not!
BENCHMARK: What role does the US see India, whose previous foray into Sri Lanka was a disaster, playing in conflict resolution now?
BLAKE: India, as you say, has a long history here. People still remember that they were the ones that engineered the 13th Amendment and some of the things that
are, I think, still being talked about today. In many ways, they’ve played a very crucial and salutary role here. And so, whatever role they continue to play will be
positive from my perspective, and we will continue to work very closely with our friends from India.
BENCHMARK: Is there a case for a UN peace-keeping mission in Sri Lanka?
BLAKE: I don’t think so. First of all, there is no peace to keep! So that’s a bit of a far-fetched scheme. In terms of a role for the UN, it has to be requested by the
member state in question. I have not heard that the Government is interested in any UN force at this state – quite the contrary. They’ve taken quite an active role to
oppose, for example, any role by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, who was interested in setting up an office here.
BENCHMARK: Will the US support such a mission?
BLAKE: Any such mission would be led by Louise Arbour – by her office- the United States is in favour of such an office, because we believe that there has been a
climate of impunity here, and there has been a significant problem with human rights here. Sri Lanka’s own institutions have been incapable of dealing with it
effectively. So we believe that the office would help to improve not only the functioning of Sri Lanka’s own systems, but help to provide a measure of protection. We
favour this, but it will have to be worked out between the Government and the office of Louise Arbour. We are not really playing an active role in that regard.
BENCHMARK: Will the putative discovery of oil off the coast of Sri Lanka make a strategic difference to the interest levels of the international community vis-à-vis
the country?
BLAKE: I don’t think it will have much of an impact. I went with Minister Fowzie to Houston to help lead a road show there, where we explained to a number of
international oil companies about some of the opportunities. So far, no American company has bid. There were three international companies, and I have not had a
chance to discuss with them why they chose not to bid. But all of them were very, very experienced in these matters. Perhaps they felt that the oil that was there was
not enough to justify significant investment. Or else, perhaps they were worried about the security situation here. I’m not sure; I don’t have details of what the reasons
are for the lack of bidding, but I don’t see it as a significant part of the strategic picture here.
Colombo, Feb 22 (IANS)
Tamil Tiger leader V. Prabhakaran would get a fair trial in India
if he were captured and sent to the country to be tried for alleged involvement in the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, says US Ambassador in Sri Lanka Robert Blake.
'I am sure that he would get a fair trial in India. We would have no concerns about that,' Blake said in an interview posted in the website of the American embassy
here.
The interviewer had asked if the US would support President Mahinda Rajapaksa if he carried out his plan to send Prabhakaran to India to face trial in the Rajiv
Gandhi case.
'Well, he (Prabhakaran) is widely believed to have been responsible for the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. So, certainly, I think that would be fine,' Blake said.
'The question is: are you going to be able to capture him or not? And I am not sure if that is possible or not,' the ambassador added.
Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated at an election rally in Sriperambudur near Chennai in Tamil Nadu on May 21, 1991, by a female suicide bomber sent by
Prabhakaran's militant outfit Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
Though Prabhakaran was a prime accused in the case, he could not be tried and sentenced, because he could not be arrested and produced before the court.
On India's role in Sri Lanka, Blake said it been 'crucial' and 'salutary'.
'They (India) were the ones who really engineered the 13th amendment and some of the things that are still being talked about today. In many ways, they have played
a crucial role here. And I think, a very salutary role as well.'
It was following the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987 that the Sri Lankan parliament had brought in the 13th amendment to the constitution to give the Tamil minority
and the provinces a modicum of autonomy. But successive Sri Lankan governments had failed to implement the provisions of the amendment fully.
'And whatever role they (India) continue to play, will be positive, from my perspective. And we (the US) will continue to work very closely with our friends in India,'
the ambassador said.
He categorically ruled out American support for any 'sharp, strategic war' against the LTTE.
'I don't think that such an outcome is possible. We don't believe that a military solution really is possible. Prabhakaran has survived now since the late seventies. He
has shown himself to be very adept and resilient, and I think continues to be so.'
'We certainly don't have any great affection for Prabhakaran. But we think that the ultimate answer lies, as I said, in a political solution, and that is why we are
encouraging the government to pursue that path,' the ambassador said.
He expressed disapproval of calls to ban the LTTE in Sri Lanka, though it is banned in the US.
'I am not sure that the government gains much by banning the LTTE at this stage. I think they (the government) have already made their point. I think that banning the
LTTE might be interpreted in the international community as taking a further step away from any kind of political solution,' he cautioned.
Blake recalled that Colombo had been against any foreign involvement in the conflict, and was even opposing the setting up of a country office of the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) in the island.
He said that the US supported the establishment of a country office of the UNHCHR in Sri Lanka because of the existence of a 'climate of impunity' in the country.
Sri Lanka's own institutions had been 'incapable' of dealing with human rights issues 'effectively,' he added.
But the question of setting up an UNHCHR office here had to be settled by the Sri Lankan government and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise
Arbor, the US ambassador pointed out.
'We are not playing any active role in that regard,' he said.
Asked bluntly if he thought Sri Lanka was a 'failed state', Blake said: 'I don't see Sri Lanka as a failed state; quite the contrary. I think that Sri Lanka has got so much
going for it.
'And one of the great frustrations of so many of us, who have such affection for your country, is that the elements of a solution are fairly widely known to almost
everybody. It is just a matter of getting the political consensus and the political will to implement those elements.'
Tamils in Colombo are not arrested but 'caught' says Mano Ganesan
(Lanka-e-News-2008Feb23, 4.00PM) Tamils are not arrested but 'caught' at street corners, from their places of residence and business and taken away in the most
inhuman uncivilized manner to unknown locations by the state police authorities. It is occurring like municipal 'dog catchers' catching 'stray dogs' with their 'dog
catching gear' in 'dog pound vans'.
The Catchers are the Police, Stray dogs are the Tamils, Catching gear is the Police weapons and the Dog pound Vans are famous White Vans! It is happening right in
the capitol city of our country and in my electoral district. I am telling this with all the responsibility as elected Parliamentarian for Colombo says leader of Western
Peoples Front and Convener of Civil Monitoring Commission Mano Ganesan MP.
"Mr.Subramaniyam Gajendradas aged 36 and Vinayagasakthi Vijendran aged 35, both of 15/4 Samagi Mawatha, Kowdana, Dehiwela, south of Colombo have
been 'caught and taken away' forcefully by armed men came in a white van at the night of 12th February Tuesday. Subsequently a complaint has been made by the
sister of one of the victims Ms. Pushparani Ramachandiran at the Dehiwela police.
When this issue was brought to my notice, I personally made enquiry with the Dehiwela police on 17th Sunday morning. When I demanded information about the
disappearances and subsequent investigations of both the missing persons, the Dehiwela police officer confirmed me the details of the complaint. The officer even very
politely corrected me when I pronounced term 'disappearance'. I was told that it is not just 'disappearances' but 'enforced abductions' as per the complaint lodged in
the Dehiwela police.
However later in the afternoon I was told by the Dehiwela police that it has been found that both 'missing' persons are being detained at the C.I.D, branch of the
police in Fort. The C.I.D. had 'informed' the Dehiwela police by fax on 17th Sunday noon that they had 'taken in' the two Tamil persons for an investigation regarding
some fraud case on 12th February Tuesday night.
What does this is to the Tamils? The C.I.D. has very clearly contravened the accepted norms, rules and regulations in conducting this arrest let alone the civility and
decency. They have failed to inform the police of the area where the 'arrested' persons were living at the time of 'arrest'. It had taken full five days for the Dehiwela
police of Sri Lanka police to know that the C.I.D. branch of the same Sri Lanka police had conducted an arrest in Dehiwela police area without their (Dehiwela
police) knowledge. What's more, the 'policemen' had gone for the 'arrest' in civil attire without sporting any identification numbers but with threatening firearms and
also in a white van and not in any official police vehicle. And they have neither identified themselves to the householders nor provided information on where they are
taking the 'arrested' people. Still the police call it 'lawful arrest' after full five days!
This has not only put the innocent family members of the victims in greater mental agony but also the Dehiwela police into unnecessary confusion.
The Sri Lanka police has various special units under it's umbrella such as TID, CID, Narcotics bureau and many other so called 'units' plus the Army intelligence. But
there is no coordination between these various units of the same defense establishment. The 'arrests' are made shabbily and arrogantly sending fear psyche among the
Tamil community. I believe it is being done systematically with a purpose.
Owner of Galle Road's popular Mysore caf� in Wellawatte, Mr. Chinnaiah Chelliah was abducted on 12th Tuesday 9 pm by armed men came in a white van # 254-
7853. According to the complaint some of the abductors had been in uniform. He was released blindfolded on 16th Saturday 1am in Wattala after assault and
interrogation. Mr. Vellaisamy Jegan hails from Puwakpitiya in Avissawella south of Colombo was picked up in Dehiwela and released on 15th Friday night. It is said
he had been interrogated by uniformed personnel. Mr. Ragul Chandrakaran of Jampettha Street Colombo 13 and Mr. Muttiah Arasaratnam of Stace Road
Grandpass Colombo 14 went missing on 10th Sunday were released on 16th Saturday.
We do not know if they were 'arrested and kidnapped' by the police or by 'others'. We do not know if these victims paid extortion money for their release. There
seems to be information but cannot be divulged due to the terrible fear.
Few months before, Mr. Kandasamy Kamaladas boarded the bus to travel from Trincomalle to Colombo with his sick mother. Prior to their departure they were
arrested at the Trincomalee bus stand and released in three hours at Trincomalee police station. Later they traveled to Colombo by the night train from Trincomalee.
When the train approached Ragama railway station north of Colombo at 5 am on September, 12th, 2007, few tough men entered Kamaladas's compartment. They
then forcefully abducted him out of the station and put into a waiting white van. They took Kamaladas�s mother too in the van and she was thrown out of the van
halfway. His crying sick mother was abounded on the street in that early time of the day relatively in an unknown location. His mother reached Colombo with the
support of people of the area and reported to the CMC. When the news reached at the international level, Kamaladas was released blind folded somewhere near
Dambulla closer to Polannaruwa on the third day of his abduction. During his detention Kamaladas had been kept in a place where many other such captives are
being detained. He was released after severe interrogation.
Chinnathamby Subesan aged 30 staying at Kinniya Lodge, Maligakande, Colombo 10 has been abducted from his place of stay at 7 pm on 14th February by
uniformed armed men. A complaint has been made at Colombo's Maradana police and he is still missing. Mr. Asirwatham Suryakumar aged 22 of 134/295 Stace
Road Colombo 14 had been abducted by armed men came in a white van by 12 pm 17th Sunday at Kosgas Junction, closer to the Grandpass police. Abductors
had blocked his motorbike and pulled him inside the van. The motor bike which was found on the road side is now kept at the Grandpass police. He is also still
missing leaving behind his aged parents and physically handicapped brother.
Civil Monitoring Commission is prepared to extent all cooperation to the police for the implementation of law and order. Parliament makes laws for this purpose.
Therefore the police are armed with law of the land to arrest any person. The law permits them to conduct such operations. But we in the Civil Monitoring
Commission fail to understand what it is stopping the IGP in conducting arrest and interrogation in the acceptable manner instead of picking people randomly without
any care for their human rights. We do not understand why the particular citizens of this country are treated like stray dogs and cattle? We fail to understand what it is
stopping the IGP in conducting arrest and interrogation in the acceptable manner? We do not understand the lack of total coordination between various agencies of
the defense organ of the state? Is it deliberately done on purpose to put fear into the minds of Tamil Citizens?"
Latest bus bomb: 18 injured, mostly passersbyEighteen civilians were injured in an explosion that wrecked a private passenger bus in Mount Lavinia town last morning but a bigger disaster was averted due to
vigilance by the public, Police said. The driver and the conductor of the Colombo-bound bus from Moratuwa had evacuated the passengers as soon as they were
alerted by a passenger of a suspicious travelling bag in the bus, thus preventing loss of many human lives.
It was around 10.50 a.m. when the bag was spotted and within a few minutes the passengers numbering about 20 had rushed out of the bus. There are two claims
about who tipped off the conductor and driver about the bag. Police spokesman N.K. Illangakoon said they were awaiting a report from the Government Analyst to
ascertain if the bomb was triggered by a remote control or a timing device. Additional Government Analyst (explosives) A. Welianga visited the scene of the blast last
afternoon.
The explosion caused damage to buildings nearby shattering glass windows. The bus also caught fire. Many of those injured in the explosion were passers-by and
they were rushed to the Kalubowila Hospital. The injured included seven women, ten men and an eight-month infant. Many of those in the vicinity were in shock due
to the impact of the explosion. Three of the injured underwent surgery.
A hospital spokesman said no one was seriously injured due to the explosion. Mount Lavinia Senior Superintendent Hemantha Adikari said a search operation was
launched in the Mount Lavinia and Moratuwa areas after the incident. Along with the search operations, Police have also intensified their awareness programmes to
show bus and train commuters how to respond to a bomb threat.
Several persons were arrested on suspicion and were being questioned by the police last night. Meanwhile at Rajagiriya last night, the bomb squad was called in to
check a suspicious parcel found in a state-run transport bus, police said. They said the parcel contained bananas and it was left behind by a passenger.

Putin warns Kosovo will 'come back to knock' West
Russia’s NATO envoy warns of ‘brute military force By Mike Eckel
MOSCOW, Saturday (AP) - President Vladimir Putin issued a sharp warning to the West about the consequences of recognizing Kosovo's independence, saying the
decision would ''come back to knock them on the head.'' The comments, made during an informal meeting of leaders from ex-Soviet republics Friday, were the
strongest by the Russian leader since Sunday when Kosovo made its declaration of independence from Serbia.
They followed statements made earlier Friday by Russia's envoy to NATO, who warned the alliance against overstepping its mandate in Kosovo and said Moscow
might be forced to use ''brute military force'' to maintain respect on the world scene. Putin used the meeting of presidents from the Commonwealth of Independent
States -- a loose, Russian dominated organization of former Soviet states -- to harshly lambast Western nations that have recognized Kosovo's independence.
Among them are the United States, Britain, Germany and France.
French soldiers of the Kosovo Force (KFOR) block a road near the Serbia-Kosovo border crossing of Jarinje on Friday. Reuters ''The Kosovo precedent is a terrifying precedent. It in essence is breaking open the entire system of international relations that have prevailed not just for decades but
for centuries. And it without a doubt will bring on itself an entire chain of unforeseen consequences,'' he said in televised comments. Those who have recognized
Kosovo ''are miscalculating what they are doing. In the end, this is a stick with two ends and that other end will come back to knock them on the head someday,'' he
said.
Moscow has heatedly protested the Kosovo declaration, which has sparked violent protests in Serbia and international disagreement over whether to recognize the
fledgling nation. Earlier Friday, Russia's NATO ambassador, Dmitry Rogozin, said the Russian military also might get involved if all European Union nations recognize
Kosovo's independence without United Nations agreement and if NATO oversteps its authority in Kosovo.He couched his threat, however, assuring that Russia was
not currently making plans for a military confrontation.
''If the European Union works out a single position or NATO goes beyond its current mandate in Kosovo, these organizations will conflict with the United Nations,''
Rogozin said in a televised hookup from NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. If that happens, Russia ''will proceed from the assumption that to be respected,
we have to use brute military force,'' he said.
Rogozin's comments sparked quick reaction from the U.S. State Department, which urged Russia to repudiate them. The U.S. ambassador to NATO said
Washington was ''very disappointed'' by Russia's hostility over Kosovo, and Nicholas Burns, the U.S. State Department's third-ranking official, called Rogozin's
statement ''highly irresponsible.''
''This cynical and historical comment by the Russian ambassador should be repudiated by his own government,'' Burns said responding to questions in an online
discussion. Later, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, Russia's envoy to the European Union, used a more conciliatory tone, saying the Kosovo problem should be resolved
exclusively by political means.
Rogozin -- an outspoken nationalist known for his tough rhetoric -- told NATO that its 16,000 peacekeepers in Kosovo must ''remain neutral'' over the contentious
declaration. ''Under no circumstances should the alliance get involved in politics,'' Rogozin said. However, Moscow already was alarmed by reports that authorities in
Kosovo had closed the border with Serbia.
Local authorities patrol Kosovo's borders, but the main responsibility for security lies with NATO peacekeepers. On Friday, they sent back several busloads of
Serbs seeking to join a rally in the Kosovo Serb stronghold of Kosovska Mitrovica.
US accuses Serbia of failing to protect embassies
BELGRADE, Saturday (Reuters) - The United States accused Serbia of failing to protect embassies from attack over Western support for Kosovo's independence,
and the EU said such violence could damage Belgrade's prospects of closer ties.
A U.S. embassy spokeswoman said families of diplomats and support staff were being evacuated after rioters stormed the building in Belgrade and set it on fire on
Thursday. The ambassador and core staff would remain. “They had an obligation to protect diplomatic missions and from what we can tell, the police presence was
either inadequate or unresponsive at the time,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters in Washington.
“We do hold the Serb government responsible. We've made that very clear. We don't expect that to happen again,” she said. The U.N. Security Council condemned
the “mob attacks” that occurred after a mass state rally over Kosovo. Serbia blamed the violence on isolated vandals.
A young man was found dead in the U.S. embassy. The British, German, Croatian and Turkish missions were also attacked. “Things will have to calm down before
we can recuperate the climate that would allow for any contact to move on the SAA (Stabilisation and Association Agreement),” European Union foreign policy chief
Javier Solana said
US seemingly approves ground operation
On the day Turkey launched its long-awaited ground operation into northern Iraq to root out Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists, the US tried to maintain a
low profile, while stating that it was happy with the level of cooperation with Turkey to combat terrorism. Learning the news of a ground operation from Today's Zaman in Brussels, US Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew J. Bryza said
he needed more information to give a complete reaction but nevertheless underlined that he was "very pleased" his government had "finally fulfilled our commitment to
Turkey."
In the wake of the presidential elections in the Greek side of Cyprus, which resulted in the ousting of incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos, Bryza indicated that the US
was ready for a more active role in sorting out the Cyprus problem, which has been a major stumbling block in Turkey's European Union accession bid. During high-
level talks with EU officials in Brussels on Turkey, Cyprus, Kosovo and energy security, he said the US fully supported the Nabucco gas pipeline project and
downplayed the exclusion of France in the effort due to bilateral problems with Turkey.
Land operation
When asked by Today's Zaman's about the ground operation, Bryza replied as follows: "What I can say is that the US has lived up to its pledges, finally, to defeat
terrorist PKK elements in northern Iraq as well as in Turkey. As you know, that happened when President [George W.] Bush met Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip]
Erdoğan on Nov. 5 in Washington and agreed that the US would share intelligence that would allow Turkish military to identify PKK terrorists and attack them. Since
then we have a very successful record of cooperation. We have been comfortable to work out specific procedures to ensure that those operations are limited just to
encounter terrorists and that damage caused to innocent civilians and property is minimized. Those goals have been achieved relatively well up until now.
"A land operation is a whole new level and I obviously need to find more to be more specific. What I can say is how we have been doing until is now quite well. I am
very pleased my government finally fulfilled our commitment to Turkey to eliminate the terror threat, which is for Turkey the number-one national security concern."
In Baghdad, Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, a US military spokesman in the city, said the land operation was understood to be of "limited duration" and aimed at PKK
members in northern Iraq.

Mega investment zone in Colombo
By Duruthu Edirimuni Chandrasekera
A new mega investment zone – slightly bigger in size than Male which is 1.77 sq km or 437.3 acres – is coming up on the fringes of the Colombo harbour with
developer John Keells Holdings (JKH) preparing the formalities to sign the relevant agreements with the authorities.
Under a public-private partnership, JKH will reclaim and develop 459 acres of land adjacent to the proposed Colombo South Harbour, a top JKH official said. “The
project is moving forward in terms of documentation in the form of various approval processes. We hope to get the approvals in place and sign the formal agreements
within the course of this year,” Ajith Gunawardena, Deputy Chairman JKH told The Sunday Times FT.
The project will reclaim the area adjacent to the new Colombo South Harbour breakwater to create what has been described as a ‘purpose built port city’. This city
will have a defined Special Economic Zone catering exclusively to global and regional players in the financial services industry, and in a smaller part, some still-to-be
decided projects.
In March 2007, JKH made an announcement confirming that the Cabinet Sub-committee on Investment Facilitation (CSIF) has approved the issuance of a Letter of
Intent (LOI) in favour of JKH with regard to a proposal submitted to the government by the company. “The particular land reclamation project is estimated at US$
300 - 400 million and is envisaged as a public private partnership (PPP) project,” Gunawardena explained. The project is a joint venture between JKH and the Sri
Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA), with each taking a 45 percent stake while the balance 10 percent is to be contributed by an institutional investor such as a multilateral
lender or a global infrastructure fund.
Gunawardena said the government is very positive to get the project up and running and is working on various legal documentation. “These things do not happen
overnight, but we have 10 months for this year to get the approval. We are positive to set the process in motion this year,” he stressed.
A stock market analyst said JKH has a strong balance sheet to start such a project but doesn’t have the technical strength to do it on their own. “It is a project with a
long gestation period, which is also the largest ever capital expenditure project which will go on for many years,” he said.
JKH is also embarking on hotel expansions in India – China and the Middle East this year. JKH has invested US$ 65 million in the Maldives during the last three
years.The company posted a third quarter net profit of Rs.1.35 million, up 99 percent from last years corresponding period.

Sri Lanka'a credit rating downgraded
Standard and Poor's today downgraded Sri Lanka's credit outlook to "negative" and warned that the country was depending too much on foreign borrowing. The
ratings agency lowered Sri Lanka from "positive" and said its credit rating was still below investment grade at "B
Japan accuses Russia of incursion
Japan said the aircraft had violated its airspace for about three minutes Japan has accused Russia of violating its airspace over the Pacific Izu islands and demanded an explanation. A Russian Tupolev 95 bomber flew for about three minutes over the isle of Sofugan, 650km (400 miles) south of Tokyo, Japanese officials said.
Japan responded by scrambling 22 jets and lodging an official protest with the Russian embassy.
But a spokesman for the Russian air force denied any incursion into Japanese airspace had occurred.
Alexander Drobyshevsky told Russia's Itar-Tass news agency that strategic bomber flights had been "carried out in strict accordance with international rules on flying
over neutral waters, without violating the border between the two countries".
Rally
Russia last violated Japan's airspace in January 2006 near Rebun Island near the northern island of Hokkaido, Japanese officials said.
On Thursday, Japan held an annual rally to demand the return of four disputed islands - known as the Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan - which
Russia seized in the closing days of World War II.
The dispute has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty to formally end the war.
It was not clear whether Saturday's flyby was related to the rally.
Despite their territorial disputes, Japan and Russia have recently indicated their desire to improve relations, the BBC's Chris Hogg reports from Tokyo.
Russia wants Japanese financial support for development of its far eastern regions while Japan wants greater access to Russia's oil reserves.
Whether the alleged incident was a mistake or something more sinister, such as an attempt to test Japan's defensive tactics, it has rattled the Japanese government,
our correspondent says.
Tokyo has demanded a full explanation from Moscow.

Sri Lanka says Kosovo independence a threat to world peace Sun Feb 17, 1:00 PM ET Sri Lanka said Sunday that Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia could set an "unmanageable precedent" and threaten world peace.
The Sri Lankan government, which is battling separatist Tamil Tiger rebels, reacted swiftly against Kosovo's independence, which it said was a violation of the United
Nations charter.
"This action by Kosovo is a violation of the Charter of the United Nations, which enshrines the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states," the Sri Lankan
foreign ministry said in a statement.
It said Kosovo's action "could set an unmanageable precedent in the conduct of international relations, the established global order of sovereign states and could thus
pose a grave threat to international peace and security."
Sri Lanka's government is battling Tamil Tiger guerrillas who are fighting for independence for minority Tamil community in this majority Sinhalese nation of 19.5
million people.
Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Sri Lanka's separatist conflict, which has dragged on for over 35 years and is Asia's longest-running ethnic conflict.

The cost of free trade
by Kath Noble
India’s Minister of Commerce was in town last week. He had the usual few words to say about the benefits that are supposed to have accrued to pretty much
everybody since the entry into force of the free trade agreement with Sri Lanka in 2000. Trade between the two countries has increased at least four-fold, and it is
now worth well over $2 billion. India had cut its tariffs on Sri Lankan goods by 2003, and Sri Lanka is due to do away with all remaining taxes on Indian imports
during 2008. Free trade has triumphed, apparently.
Unfortunately, the story isn’t so simple. Taking a closer look at what has happened in practice would prompt even the most ardent believer to question the
undoubtedly beguiling theory of free trade.
Sri Lanka’s major export under the free trade agreement is hydrogenated vegetable oil. It has become big business here. About a dozen factories have been set up,
and they employ some thousands of Sri Lankans. Production has increased several times since 2000. In 2002, 80,000 MT of hydrogenated vegetable oil was
shipped to India, and this had more than doubled to some 165,000 MT by 2005. Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with its rather more powerful neighbour was cut from a
ratio of 1:10 to around 1:3 over the same period.
Free trade is supposed to be about each country focusing on the goods that it can produce most efficiently, and then selling them to others and using the proceeds to
buy whatever else it needs on a level playing field. However, this is clearly not the reality. Sri Lanka has been importing crude palm oil from Malaysia, putting it
through a rather simple chemical process, and then exporting the end result as hydrogenated vegetable oil to India. Indian products have been undercut only because
the Sri Lankan government has been imposing very little duty on crude palm oil, while India has been taxing such imports heavily.
The industry was bound to run into trouble. Indian manufacturers were understandably upset at what they considered to be unfair competition, because many of their
established plants were operating well below capacity or were being forced to close up altogether, and they began pressing the Indian government to protect them.
Sri Lanka exported more than 100,000 MT of hydrogenated vegetable oil to India in the first six months of 2006, and it proved to be the beginning of the end for Sri
Lanka’s industry. India decided to forget the free trade agreement and simply put a stop to Sri Lankan imports. Factories stood idle for months while negotiations
were underway to find a compromise solution, and everybody was relieved when the Indian government agreed to restart the trade with a fixed ceiling on Sri Lankan
products of 250,000 MT per year.
In fact, the dispute didn’t end there. The Indian government faced further demands from its industrialists, and it finally decided to reduce its import tariff on crude palm
oil at the end of 2007. Sri Lankan products rather abruptly became no cheaper than those made in India.
Hydrogenated vegetable oil will end up as just another small enterprise in Sri Lanka. Exports can’t endure for long, and the industry won’t prosper unless people in
this country can be convinced to eat an awful lot more fatty foods. Sri Lanka benefited from the situation for a while, but there was never any real reason to
manufacture large amounts of hydrogenated vegetable oil here, so this is far from an advert for free trade. Sri Lankan workers are hardly going to celebrate having
temporarily stolen a few jobs from their probably no better off Indian counterparts. Sri Lankan leaders will have to start worrying about the trade deficit again.
Meanwhile, it turns out that most of the local producers are actually Indians. They only came over here to exploit the loophole in the free trade agreement. Sri Lanka
was essentially incidental to this tale.
Pepper is the other important product in the free trade agreement. Again, Sri Lanka has been exporting increasingly large quantities, and this has resulted in India
imposing a cap on Sri Lankan pepper of some 2,500 MT per year.
Sri Lankan producers do have an advantage in this case. Indian yields are now amongst the lowest in the world, and wages are probably the highest, so the
principles of free trade would suggest that they ought to give it up. However, this is easier said than done. Pepper farmers have to make major investments in their
cultivation, because vines take several years to yield after planting, and it is a brave farmer who rips them up to make way for another crop.
Desperate farmers don’t have a choice. Kerala produced almost all of India’s pepper in 2000, and it is one of the longest living, healthiest and most literate states
outside the West, yet it also has one of India’s highest rates of farmer suicide, and literally thousands of Kerala farmers had taken their own lives by 2006. Drought
didn’t help, but plummeting prices were the major cause of distress, because most farmers depended exclusively on cash crops for their survival. In 2000, pepper
fetched well over INR 200 per kilo, but this had dropped to under INR 70 per kilo by 2003, and prices only recovered to around INR 80 per kilo in 2006. Kerala’s
government judged that its pepper farmers could have no hope of even recouping their costs after 2000, because one hectare produced less than 300 kilos of pepper
and required inputs of around INR 33,000. Farmers were in deep trouble.
The free trade agreement can’t be blamed for all of this. Prices in the global market were adversely affected during this period by the massively increasing supply from
new entrants to the pepper business like Vietnam. However, it certainly made the situation worse. Indian imports went up by a multiple of five from only 3,000 MT in
2000, while Indian exports dropped by more than half to some 20,000 MT in 2003. In 2005, Sri Lanka shipped some 7,500 MT of pepper, while total imports to
India amounted to around 15,000 MT. Sri Lankan producers often complain about Indian protectionism. Free trade would allow them to further increase their
market share and earn more foreign exchange for the country, but this doesn’t seem like such a great idea when one farmer commits suicide every 30 minutes in India.
Sri Lankan industry representatives announced earlier this year that there would be no further pepper exports under the free trade agreement until India removed the
2,500 MT cap, but they are still sending some 4,000 MT under a separate duty-free scheme to feed the essential oil factories of India’s export processing zones.
Pepper is going to survive as an important industry in Sri Lanka.
Meanwhile, Sri Lankan farmers may not even be profiting from the problems of their Indian comrades. It has been suggested that pepper from other countries is
being diverted this way to take advantage of the free trade agreement. Sri Lanka should be ashamed if this is so.
India’s Minister of Commerce looked forward to signing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Sri Lanka later in 2008. It will go beyond the
abolition of duty on trade in goods to consider other barriers to free trade, and it will encompass trade in services as well. Both countries are also expected to reduce
the number of products excluded from the free trade agreement. Trade is bound to receive another impressive boost in value, and bilateral investment may well
increase too. Sri Lanka might gain, but past experiences need to be reviewed in a rather more circumspect manner than has been the tendency to date, because the
modest successes of the free trade agreement have at the same time been glaring failures.
Free trade has a cost. Hydrogenated vegetable oil manufacturers on both sides of the strait know it by now, but nobody understands this better than the pepper
farmers of Kerala. It’s about time somebody told India’s Minister of Commerce.

Getting Prabhakaran
by Raj Chengappa(India Today)
The Sri Lankan Army Headquarters in the heart of Colombo is among the most heavily fortified complexes in the country. To get to the office of Lieutenant-General
Sarath Fonseka, commander of the army, one has to go through a confusing maze of security checks.
For good reason-a year and a half ago, a suicide bomb attack inside the headquarters by a Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) saw Fonseka seriously injured
and hospitalised for months.
Yet, that only steeled his resolve to wipe out the world's most ruthless terrorist organisation, whose members parade themselves as freedom fighters for Sri Lanka's
minority Tamil population.
(Tamils form 23 per cent of the 20-million-strong population and LTTE has been waging a 30-year war for a separate homeland for them.) Since then, Fonseka and
his 1.6-lakh-strong army have inflicted body blows on LTTE.
In less than a year-and-a-half, the army has wrested control of seven districts in the east and the west, which LTTE had previously controlled.
The Tigers now have effective control over only two districts-Killinochchi and Mullaitivu in the north. This is a rump compared to the vast stretches of coastline where
their writ once ran.
The armed forces also recently succeeded in killing two of LTTE's toprung leaders-Tamil Selvam, the political head, and Shanmuganathan Ravishankar alias Charles,
the military intelligence chief-in surprise strikes.
They narrowly missed striking the feared chief Velupillai Prabhakaran in late December, when the Air Force scored a direct hit on a bunker, known as X-ray, that he
frequented.
When he didn't make an appearance at Charles's funeral, they suspected Prabhakaran was injured. Subsequently, intelligence believes that he is alive and in full
command of his forces.
Fonseka and his army are not willing to allow that position to continue for long. With Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse formally putting to an end, on January
16, the tattered Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) that a previous government had entered into with LTTE in 2002, the armed forces have stepped up their campaign to
tighten the noose they had thrown around the Tiger's last bastion.
In a major offensive, Fonseka has lined up five of the 12 divisions of his army to engage Prabhakaran and the LTTE army in a decisive operation to wipe out the
organisation.
The commander, who announced a policy of killing at least 10 Tiger cadres a day, boasts that of late, he has been able to double that number. With the LTTE army
reduced to 3,000-5,000, Fonseka calculates that it can be wiped out in less than a year.
To ensure that he meets the target, Fonseka has brought under siege the dense Wanni jungles that act like a natural fortress to the two remaining districts under
LTTE's control.
He has spent a good deal of time and money in training and equipping his men to fight like the Tigers. Breaking up his battalions into deep penetration units adept at
guerrilla warfare, he has surprised LTTE by the capacity of his army to inflict maximum damage with minimum casualties.
To stretch LTTE's defences, he has launched a four-pronged attack coming in from all directions (see chart). While the Tigers engage in conventional warfare by firing
mortar, Fonseka's army moves in small bands of killer units, laying booby traps, gathering intelligence and destroying infrastructure like bridges and communication
lines.
Fonseka, who is not willing to rush in and strike, says, "We are taking the territory inch by inch and foot by foot while inflicting heavy casualties on them. It's only a
matter of time before LTTE begins to wilt."
Part of the army's strategy is to step up attacks on all LTTE leaders, with Prabhakaran being on top of the list. As Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse-the
President's younger brother" says, "LTTE, being a monolithic organisation, will collapse if we strike at the head, allowing us to finish it with less casualties and
destruction."
The younger Rajapakse has been instrumental in transforming the way the Sri Lankan armed forces fought. A former lieutenant-colonel, who fought against the Tigers
in the late-'80s and the early-'90s, Gotabaya believes "it is not the weapon but the man behind it that matters most".
To make sure he has the best men, he has not only doubled the salaries of the existing rank and file in the army, but has also put aside money for equipping them with
the latest weapons.
Having the President for a brother helped, as there was no political resistance when he jacked up the defence budget to $1.5 billion (Rs 6,000 crore) in 2007, a 100
-per cent increase over the previous year's budget. Most importantly, he let Fonseka and the chiefs of the other two forces have a free hand.
Fonseka used the unfettered mandate to radically restructure his army.
With photographs of lions adorning his chamber, the army commander speaks with a quiet confidence as he describes how he went about shaking up a moribund,
ineffective and corrupt force into a fierce army that could take on the world's most feared terrorist organisation.
He first appointed commanders who had proven themselves in military operations, brushing aside protocols of seniority. Fonseka, who pushed for extensive training
of troops in jungle warfare and engineering, was given a carte blanche to buy weapons.
He also started a major recruitment drive that saw close to 40,000 being inducted into the army in the past year, raising five new divisions. "We now have 25,000
new bayonets pointing at LTTE, not to mention the reserve units that can be brought into play if needed," he says.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan Air Force and Navy, too, have begun to look smart. After the surprise bomb attacks on Colombo by two light aircraft that LTTE had
smuggled in, the air force has imported radar-reportedly from India-to improve surveillance.
A whole squadron of MIG 27 has been added. With better ground and air surveillance and bunker-buster bombs, the air force has made successful precision strikes.
The navy, too, got its fair share of change, with better patrol boats and warships that have seen it destroy much of the Sea Tigers' fleet and floating arsenal in recent
months.
This has severely limited the flow of arms to LTTE from the sea, thereby diminishing their fighting capability. The Indian Navy has helped by quietly blockading the
Jaffna seas and passing on critical information about movements of ships to the Sri Lankan Navy. US intelligence, too, has played a role in increasing the rate of
successful interdiction of ships carrying weapons.
For the embattled LTTE, the options are dwindling. With the US and Europe designating it as a terrorist organisation, much of its illegal funding has been blocked.
The territories it had held in the east in the past had helped it get a constant supply of fresh recruits. With Karuna, a former LTTE eastern command chief, turning
against Prabhakaran, the organisation is considerably weakened.
Reportedly, the Tigers are now forced to conscript very young or middle-aged people not suited for fighting. It hasn't helped that its top leaders are either in their
forties or fifties, making it a middle-aged army" a far cry from the young, battle-hardened guerrilla force that could once strike back with great ferocity and win big
battles against the Sri Lankan Army.
Prabhakaran himself is around 53 years old, has become portly, and is said to be suffering from ailments that possibly include diabetes. An accidental bomb blast left
Soosai, the Sea Tiger chief, confined to his wheelchair and also killed his son. Balraj, deputy chief of the military, is also said to be ailing.
As the Sri Lankan Army's bombings get more accurate, Fonseka takes delight in the fact that he is giving Prabhakaran sleepless nights, since he has to constantly
change his hideouts. The Sri Lankan intelligence believes that there is no clear line of succession if Prabhakaran is killed or incapacitated in an attack.
Says Fonseka, "When a ship is sinking, there is no succession line." Pottu Amman, Prabhakaran's intelligence chief and the man who masterminded Rajiv Gandhi's
assassination, is the closest to him and controls access to the LTTE chief. It was apparently a battle for supremacy between Amman and Karuna, which saw the latter
leave the outfit in a huff. Of late, there has been talk of Prabhakaran passing the mantle to son Charles Anthony, but Fonseka dismisses him as "fat, lazy and incapable
of taking over LTTE".
Other reports say he is a computer geek and his father is using him to boost LTTE's communications via the Internet. Colonel (retd) G. Hariharan, an Indian military
expert, says that after Prabhakaran, Afghan-style warlordism may arise, with LTTE fragmenting.
Already, the Tigers are showing signs of desperation. They have unleashed a wave of attacks on civilian targets in a bid to take the pressure off them in the battle for
Wanni.
On the eve of the Independence Day celebrations on February 4, they penetrated the tight Sri Lankan security. A suicide blast at the Fort Railway Station saw 12
people, including seven children, being killed. A bomb had also been planted close to the President's Temple Trees office and only luck prevented what would have
been an embarrassing blast for the Government.
LTTE's plan to strike in different towns and not in Colombo alone is intended to stretch the Sri Lankan internal security forces and get them to divert some of the
army units from the battle for the north.
The Tigers also want to trigger ethnic riots and get the international community to pressure the Government into ending the offensive. The other option is to maintain
status quo in the north, where the battle rages, and to tire the people and the Government.
Already, inflation is running at over 20 per cent, and the cost of a loaf of bread has gone up from Rs 15 to Rs 35. If LTTE ensures a stalemate in the war, peoples'
patience for the Government may wear thin.
Meanwhile, President Rajapakse has to answer to the international community, including India. He has been told firmly that there is no military solution to the ethnic
problem and that peace could return only if his Government came up with a credible devolution package for the Tamils.
So Rajapakse hustled the All Party Representative Committee (APRC), which he had appointed to look into the question of devolution, into submitting an interim
report. APRC had recommended the implementation of the 13th Amendment brought in by the Indo-Sri Lankan Accord in 1987, which had advised the setting up of
Provincial Councils with powers to run matters related to police, education, health and infrastructure.
Very little was done by successive governments to implement its recommendations. Now, the President promises to implement it in toto "as the first step" and has
promised to consider any more demands that APRC may make. Meanwhile he has deployed brother Basil Rajapakse to go full speed in developing the east and
forming its Provincial Council by March.
This has calmed the international community that has tacitly allowed Rajapakse to continue the war. But there are growing complaints from the West about human
rights violations and media censorship. Internal resistance is also growing.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the Opposition and the architect of CFA, does not share the Government's optimism about the war. Nor is he enamoured by the
devolution package being promised to the Tamils. Wickremesinghe told India Today: "Apart from antagonising the international community by abrogating CFA, the
Government still has not come up with a credible devolution plan for the Tamils."
Tamil factions, too, are critical. S. Adaikkalanathan, MP and leader of the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation, says, "Unable to lay new eggs, the President is
duping the Tamils, promising to hatch an egg that has rotted for 60 years."
By staking his prestige on winning against LTTE, or "putting all his eggs in the war basket", as a diplomat describes it, Rajapakse has narrowed his options
considerably.
The Tigers may be down, but they are certainly not out. And given their past history, there is every possibility that they may bounce back and succeed in bogging
down the Sri Lankan Army in a debilitating stalemate.
A terror strike on an important leader could also send the President's calculations awry. People's discontent over prices may boil over before the one year the
President has asked for is over.
Rajapakse has embarked on a dangerous game of brinkmanship. If he succeeds in bagging Prabhakaran, he is certain to win the next elections and continue his reign.
If he fails, well, the dustbin of history is never short of space.