Chandran's commentary on Pirapas H.Day speech

Note no. 419
30-Nov.-2007
SRI LANKA: Heroe’s Day Speech by LTTE Leader: A Commentary: Update No. 132
By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan.

The annual Heroe’s Day speech of Prabakaran, the LTTE leader on 27 November 2007, that was being looked forward to, as LTTE’s assessment of the situation and its future plans, contained many nuances, but no surprises. The full text of the speech is given as an Appendix.
The main focus of the speech was directed to the international community with an appeal to cease giving military and economic aid to the Sri Lankan government and accept the right to self determination and the sovereignty of the Tamil Nation.
My observations on the speech are
1. The address has more political content than the earlier ones and the first one after Balasingham’s death whose input could be seen in the earlier speeches but not this time. The first few paragraphs give the historical and the international setting of the Tamil struggle.
2. Indian intervention then was termed as part of one of its ‘ regional expansion’. This shows that the LTTE did not understand then nor now of Indian sincerity and its efforts to find a reasonable solution. It is conceded that the security aspects of the Indo Sri Lanka could have been avoided but yet the main accord did provide for the first time Indian guarantees of devolution to meet the aspirations of the Tamils. The 13th amendment was not the best of the document but it could have been the beginning to be built upon. It is true that the implementation of the 13th amendment was “ blocked by the chauvinistic Sinhala State” as mentioned in the speech, but the LTTE was equally responsible in preventing its implementation ( recall their booklet- “13th Amendment- an autopsy”). The LTTE took upon India which is not a small power and without whose support there could never be a solution. Many well wishers of the Tamil cause in India were aghast when the LTTE sought support from the very Sinhala nation for their arms, equipment and support in fighting the IPKF! If today we see not much of a stir over the killing of Tamil Chelvan in India, the LTTE should have an introspection and see what had alienated India that it does not want to get involved at all on the Tamil question when the Tamil areas in the east have been ravaged and civilians are getting killed everyday due to aerial bombing.
3. It is good to see the mention of the Tamil Diaspora and its value. The term used should have been “Sri Lankan Tamil Expatriates” who have steadfastly supported the movement and the bulk of them still have faith, admiration and hope that the LTTE will one day bring justice to the Tamils. What I have seen before and see even now is the lack of ‘political finesse’ of the LTTE and their over dependence on the military aspects of their struggle. It is time they let the expats do the home work to bring an end to the war with a solution that could be acceptable to all stake holders. Again the Tamil National Alliance despite doubts about its credibility did try its best to put a political “face” on behalf of LTTE. It was however never allowed to think or work independently and the LTTE leadership is responsible for marginalising this entity which in the beginning showed great promise.
4. It is also true( as pointed out in the speech) that Rajapakse government has shut fast the door for peace and it appears to be confident of a military solution. It is also true that they have been considerably helped by many of the countries in providing equipment, weapons and training that is having an impact on the ground. The LTTE appears to be most vulnerable to aerial attacks and big bombs and high explosives are being used. The lethal nature of the bombs could be gauged from the fact that TamilChelvan and five others who were in a bunker were asphyxiated by a very heavy bomb that hit directly and destroyed the entrance. It is important for both sides to realise that there is no military solution. The seeming military advantage the Sri Lankan Security Forces have now is mainly due to the air superiority and if the LTTE gets hold of a few SAMs, the military balance will be restored!
5. I mention this because, sensing victory, the Rajapakse government is dragging its feet on the recommendations of the Vitharana report, Report A etc etc. The All Party Committee it seems has gone on a “holiday” as the LTTE leader has mentioned. Going back, it should be clear to all that the Sri Lankan government has never specifically put forward a clear and specific devolution package except the District Development councils suggested in the Thimpu I talks and the 13th amendment which at any rate was an Indian enforced one. The Sri Lankan Government never responded to ISGA proposals of the LTTE. The ISGA had many objectionable portions but these were never discussed. Till today there has not been any counter proposal. The international community should note this point.
6. Mention is made of Sinhalisation of the east which all reports indicate are true. Names are being changed and the beautiful area of Sampur and Mutur have been made high security zones. A generally peaceful area of Batticola is now one vast refugee camp as the people there have nowhere to go But does this not indicate the failure of the LTTE to protect its own people? In the Sudumalai speech, Prabakaran indicated that the responsibility of protecting the Tamils had been given to India and yet on a messy and in my view avoidable incident ( the Indian side is more to blame) the whole scenario changed!
7. Three of the four Thimpu principles are once again emphasised and any final solution will have to take into account in some form or other, the issues relating to Tamil Home land, the Tamil Nation and the Tamil Right to self determination. Balasingham’s earlier conceptualisation of “internal self determination “ unlike external determination’ has now been given up.
8. The Co-chairs have been accused of having failed in their responsibility. Akashi’s efforts in running from place to place have been in vain and there is yet no coordinated and concerted call for enforcing a cease fire by the international community. Cease fire and Peace Process are dead for all practical purposes.
9. Finally, there is a warning to the Sri Lankan government that it had spread its feet “too wide” and will be forced to face serious consequences of its misguided ambitions.
The LTTE’s position since the loss of the east has hardened with no chance of coming to the negotiating table in the near future. Its tactics will change and more incidents in the south could be expected. Douglas Devananda escaped another effort of a suicide bomber and there was an IED explosion in the outskirts of Colombo killing innocent civilians two days ago This is probably in retaliation to the bombing on the day of the speech when many civilians were killed in the LTTE controlled area.
If the LTTE wants the international community to understand them and help them, they should first stop the politics of assassination. Douglas is just a tiny cog in the big wheel of Tamil nationalism and his elimination is not going make the situation easier even for the LTTE.
Prabakaran has always maintained that the “Sinhala Nation” can never be trusted and will never yield any space to the Tamils to meet their aspirations. The Sri Lankan Government is doing its best to prove this point. It is still not too late for the Sri Lankan government to give up its military option and go for a generous political package no matter what the JVP or the JHU has to say on this issue.
Till that time, the violence that has now been unleashed will keep spiralling and may get out of hand if saner voices do not intervene.
Appendix: