No National enthusiasm over Government sponsored 'liberation east' ceremonies
Columns - Situation Report
East: the aftermath
Service Chiefs discuss how to thwart any LTTE infiltration Eastern victories turn Colombo into a city under siege, Thursday was a security nightmare
By Iqbal Athas
Hard on the heels of the victory at Toppigala followed the national celebrations in Colombo last Thursday. Even if the victory by the Security Forces and the Police (mostly their Special Task Force) earned plaudits from the public, the highly publicized event at Independence Square, in marked contrast, was different. Despite a strong campaign to whip up euphoria, only some Sri Lankans showed interest in the event. They hoisted national flags in their homes, offices, shops and motor vehicles. The fact that most others did not, like during Independence Day celebrations, was clearly apparent. There was no countrywide national enthusiasm over the Government sponsored ceremonies.
It was being held to pay tribute to the men and women who laid down their lives, lost their limbs, were wounded and others who succeeded in re-capturing Toppigala. More importantly, as President Mahinda Rajapaksa, declared in his address to the nation, "the demonic forces of terror who for several decades had robbed the freedom of Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim people who lived in the fertile lands of the East of our motherland, have been completely driven away." In other words, the East, the Government declared earlier last week, was now free of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
A Chinese built T-55 Main Battle Tank rolls down Colombo’s Independence Square on Thursday during Government sponsored ceremonies to mark the re-capture of Toppigala. Photo: Gemunu Wellage With last Thursday's events over, Security Forces and Police top brass in the Western Province breathed a sigh of relief. Their great ease is understandable. There were intelligence warnings of at least six different guerrilla groups planning to wreak havoc. The idea, like other planned attacks on VIPs and vital targets, it was claimed, was to mar last Thursday's events.
The Army is placed in overall charge of security in the Western province. All other state security agencies are under their operational command. Army Headquarters have debarred senior officers from dealing with the media. Hence, one of them spoke on grounds of anonymity to The Sunday Times to explain their role in preventing any incidents last Thursday. His remarks not only underscored their difficult role but also the dangers that lay ahead.
He said, "There is a migrant population of nearly a million people entering or leaving the greater Colombo metropolitan area. There are 300,000 vehicles that enter or leave daily. A majority of them cross the Kelani bridge. Of this, the number of buses and coaches average between 10,000 and 15,000."
He said conducting thorough checks on all of them was humanly impossible. On the other hand, he said, several vital installations had to be protected in the light of the LTTE threat (after the re-capture of Toppigala) that economic and military targets would be attacked. This included security installations, the Colombo Port, the Bandaranaike International Airport at Katunayake, Oil installations at Kolonnawa, Muthurajawela, the Kelanitissa Power Station and the Railway. "You have to remember that we have to maintain the peak levels of alert. With limited resources and strength that is a gigantic task," he said.
The Army officer's remarks underscored two important ground realities - Heightened Tiger guerrilla threats in the City and suburbs were very much a likelihood. Though the East was cleared, precautions had to be taken round the clock to prevent any devastating attack. Secondly, the threats to targets in the City require the continuation of troops and police strength now deployed. The preventive measures they adopt, among others, checks on vehicles and persons will thus continue. These factors no doubt leave or even enhance the impression that Colombo is a capital under siege. That is not good news to the commerce and industrial sectors.
Added to that is the warnings already issued to star class hotels and operators of high rise buildings not to switch on their auxiliary power supply when there is a blackout. This is due to fear of air attacks by the guerrillas. In a note to their guests, one leading hotel has advised that when there are blackouts, they should shut any window that is open and draw the curtains. They have been advised to use candles placed in the toilet together with a box of matches. Needless to say, these precautionary measures will continue for some more time. It would be difficult to imagine how an investor wanting to plough in millions of dollars in a project in Sri Lanka would react to these security procedures. These are preliminaries they would have to go through before talking formalities with the local counterparts or Government officials.
Those are the threat perceptions that portend the City of Colombo and suburbs. What about the East, particularly in the aftermath of Government claims that Tiger guerrillas have been completely driven away? Interesting enough, an indication of how things could manifest emerged at the weekly meeting of service chiefs last Tuesday at the Joint Operations Headquarters (JOH). Intelligence officials pointed out that a group of some 50 Tiger guerrilla cadres had infiltrated the East and were poised to carry out attacks. Other intelligence reports had earlier spoken of some 200 cadres moving around in the East. Other sources, however, claimed the numbers were much higher. The revelation at the JOH meeting was about an infiltration after the July 11 re-capture of Toppigala.
The meeting is chaired by the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Donald Perera. It is attended by the Commander of the Army, Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, Commander of the Air Force, Air Marshal Roshan Goonetileke, Police Chief Victor Perera, Commandant of the Police Special Task Force (STF) DIG Nimal Lewke, Chief of Staff of the Army and head of Overall Operations Command (OOC) Major General Lawrence Fernando and senior intelligence officials. The Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, though required to attend, does not participate. Navy sources said this was due to personal reasons. He is represented by a senior Navy officer. The JOH is located in a building inside Army Headquarters.
The fact that a group of 50 guerrilla cadres had infiltrated the east, in an apparent bid to join some 200 which intelligence agencies know are present there, assumes some significance. It is in the light of claims that the guerrillas have been completely driven away from the East. Firstly, evidence that groups were still present in the East was confirmed last Monday.
Suspected Tiger guerrillas shot dead the Chief Secretary of the Eastern Provincial Council, Herath Abeyweera. The top most State official for the Eastern province had introduced a daily work norm that included the hoisting of the national flag and the playing of the national anthem on the public address system. The next day, guerrillas shot dead an Army captain and wounded two soldiers at Sittaru near Kantalai in the Trincomalee district.
The fact that groups are still operating, though not holding territory, poses threats not only to Government officials, but also military, Police top brass and VIPs. They could also be more than an irritant in sabotaging the ambitious development projects which the Government wants to launch. Furthermore, with plans to conduct both local and provincial elections, they can pose serious threats to the lives of candidates contesting them.
Naturally, minimizing these threats effectively would require not only a larger strength but also more resources. This becomes the dilemma for the defence establishment. With claims that the East has been rid of guerrilla presence, their focus is now turning to the North. It is no secret that troops are thinning out in some parts of the East paving the way for Police, including the Special Task Force to take over their roles. More strength and more resources would be required for the planned military operations in the North.
Unlike their strategy in the East of withdrawing to return later, the guerrillas have been strongly resisting any advance by troops in the Northern theatre. This position was underscored by guerrilla political wing leader, S.P. Tamilselvan in an interview with the Tamilnet web site on June 25. He said the LTTE adopts military strategies to suit the place, the environment and the time. He warned that the "Sinhala forces" would understand the trap they have set for themselves. It remains to be seen whether the remarks were mere rhetoric.
Though the Security Forces are yet to formally launch a major offensive in the North, a limited intrusion a week ago met with stiff resistance. Troops broke out of their defended localities near Irana Iluppaikulam to advance towards the village of Tampanai. These areas are located east of Mannar. Ahead of the move artillery and mortar barrages rained on guerrilla positions after midnight that day. By evening troops were back to their original positions. At least 14 soldiers were killed and 78 more were wounded. Army sources say a sizeable number of those wounded were P1 cases or those who would be left out of battle.
In the light of severe restrictions placed by Army Headquarters, correct casualty counts of troops are not made available to the media on most incidents. On Friday, guerrillas mounted attacks on three different small detachments of the Army near Mannar, overrunning one of them. The Army denied Tiger guerrilla claims that they had killed ten soldiers and said only four had died.
Ahead of plans to attack guerrilla positions in the North, a move which the Government has publicly declared, the Security Forces are in the process of assessing their new needs. Besides more equipment, replenishing stocks of artillery, mortar, heavy guns and small arms ammunition will require an enormous financial commitment. This is particularly after vast stocks have been expended in the East during the past months. This is besides the needs of the Air Force and the Navy. This poses a serious question for the Government. Even if immediate needs are obtained by marshalling meagre resources, the economic burden of running the expanding military machine on the long term becomes a critical issue. With a deteriorating economy, how would funds be raised is the all important question.
Even if there is forced recruitment in the North, with the LTTE demanding one member from every family, funds do not seem to be a major problem for them. Since March 26, this year, when they demonstrated their air strike capability, contributions from the Tamil diaspora has increased considerably.
A revealing article due for publication in the Jane's Intelligence Review next month notes that the LTTE generates an estimated US $ 200 to $ 300 million every year. It points out that after meeting their operational costs to run an administration (in the Wanni) amounting to US $ 8 million, the profit margin would become the envy of any multinational corporation.
Unlike the Jihadist movement, the LTTE, the JIR investigation reveals, is a centralized, hierarchical organization commanded and controlled by its founding leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran. It says the LTTE ranks tend to fill the ranks of the two principal directorates that manage the interlocking arms of raising money and buying weapons. However, lower down the chain of command LTTE members tend to act as outsourced agents driven as much by profit as any ideological commitment to creating a Tamil state in Sri Lanka.
The JIR report has delved at length into the findings by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation. During a series of detailed operations, FBI stings led to the arrest of Tiger guerrilla suspects and their associates in New York, Guam, Indonesia and Singapore.
The JIR report says that two overarching financial and procurement bodies are the Aiyanna Group, directed by Pottu Amman, and the Office of Overseas Purchases, directed by Kumaran Pathmanathan, alias KP, and source of the office's nickname, the KP Department. The Aiyanna Group (Aiyanna is a letter from the Tamil alphabet) functions as the Tamil Tigers' clandestine intelligence and operations body and is likely to be responsible for monitoring and ensuring the organisation's financial support and revenue streams. The Aiyanna Group's global management allegedly acts as overseer to Tamil communities in Western countries through myriad LTTE front organizations.
The Office of Overseas Purchases or KP Department is most probably the LTTE's procurement arm. Although Vaitiyalingam Sornalingam, alias Colonel Shankar, created the unit (the now deceased Canadian Tamil who also founded the LTTE's Air and Sea Tiger Wings), KP allegedly directs its activities at present. The second most wanted man in Sri Lanka, Pathmanathan, the JIR report notes, is a highly competent and elusive operative. The KP department has reportedly sourced arms in various countries and operates a fleet of deep-sea vessels, known as Sea Pigeons (Kadal Pura). Normally registered in Panama, Honduras or Liberia, the Sea Pigeons are primarily tasked with the delivery of procured weapons to LTTE bases in Sri Lanka and may also be in other LTTE enterprises, legal or otherwise.
Commenting on KP's role, a high ranking intelligence source in Colombo told The Sunday Times "KP is no longer active. He is sick. We know he is now in a Scandinavian country living under an assumed name. Castro, the LTTE's head of the International Wing, tried to take his place. Some of his operatives fell to FBI traps."
The JIR report reveals that the LTTE creates and staffs charitable fronts and projects its influence through these organizations and outsourced Tamil gangs to raise money from Tamil communities and, ultimately, convert the gains into arms. Noting that weapons from the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu have been limited to items of low technology, JIR says that Cambodia is one of the most significant single sources of weapons to the LTTE outside Sri Lanka. Other sources of origin were the rest of Southeast Asia, North Korea, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and Ukraine. Thailand is also described as another source.
The JIR report notes that LTTE's international network of non-governmental and charitable organizations work as an efficient way for it to move funds wherever investment or procurement opportunities arise. Proving that they can be profitable, these non-profit organizations afford an estimated US $ 2 million a month to the LTTE war chest. The charitable fronts also offer tax free status and legitimacy gained through working with larger, reputable, non-governmental organizations.
JIR says the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami allowed the LTTE to easily raise large sums of money and move them to LTTE-administered regions under the pretext of charitable disaster relief. Much of the money has been untraceable and the Sri Lankan government claims it has been diverted to the LTTE war machine.
In their conclusion, the lengthy JIR account says LTTE's strategic aim of defeating the Sri Lankan military and securing a political victory in the form of a separate Tamil state depends on the organisation's capacity to source money and arms abroad. Its strategic need to acquire high-tech weaponry, such as surface to air missiles, indicates its activities will continue. However, if the Western law enforcement crackdown on LTTE financial and procurement continues, the group's ability to fight may be weakened in the medium term, degrading its ability to withstand the Sri Lankan government's offensives and further undermining its combat capabilities.
Given the losses incurred by the LTTE since 2006 in the east of the country, JIR notes, this may lead to increased pressure to sue for peace, although given the tenacious history of the LTTE not even a severe denigration of its arsenal will encourage a political settlement with the current government.
In the past week or more Tiger guerrillas have withdrawn from positions in Batticaloa west. Military Intelligence sources told The Sunday Times groups had moved to the Trincomalee district.
They have headed towards Kandalkadu, Kadawana and to areas north of Trincomalee. Some groups have also moved into the Ampara district. These sources said sporadic attacks by these groups cannot be ruled out. A disturbing feature in this regard, according to these sources, was the shifting of the LTTE's main intelligence base from the Batticaloa district to the Amparai district. Intercepts of radio communications had shown that the new base was regularly making radio contact with guerrilla bases in the Wanni. Yesterday STF commandos killed six guerrillas including an area leader in Kanjikudichiaru in the Ampara district. This came during the concluding stages of Operation Nihatai Jaya (Assured Victory)
An unusual feature during the Government sponsored celebrations over the victory at Toppigala was a request asking the Army, Navy and the Air Force to address messages to senior school children. The message from the Navy praised both the Army and the Air Force for their role in operations in the East.
But the one from the Army to the students left out the role of the Navy altogether. Naturally, like observers who closely watch the defence and security establishments, discerning students would have wondered whether there was anything wrong. Many a question in this regard has been raised at the highest levels of the Government in the past. If in fact there were differences of opinion or displeasure at the higher levels of command, it is most reprehensible that attempts have been made to educate the senior students, the future generation, of such situations. The fact that there has been no firm Government control over such attempts to poison young minds makes the situation even worse.
This is what the Army message said, "…..the victory at Thoppigala is the greatest win the Army achieved in the past and it was done after master planning with the co-operation of the Commandos and other units whilst the Air Force support was great in aiming at Tiger targets…."
Without doubt, the Navy played a key role in preventing the guerrillas from escaping via sea. Guerrilla re-inforcements being rushed to the east were once intercepted in the seas off Pulmoddai. Gun battles ensued there. During briefings to his senior officers in the East, the Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, had asked them to extend full support to the Army in their operations there.
The concluding paragraph of the Army message to students says,: "Considering that the Indian Army, which is regarded as the fourth largest in the World had difficulties in tackling this area, the admission of defeat by Tiger cadres for the first time, is public proof of our Army's valour and courage." The message ends with a reported quote from a long retired one time IPKF (Indian Peace Keeping Force) intelligence officer that "the Sri Lanka Army can go after any target, which goes to prove that the Tiger days are numbered under the present Army Commander (Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka), which statement we make with pride but with humility."
How the IPKF then found it difficult to reach Toppigala or where and when the Tiger cadres admitted defeat is not made clear. There is little doubt that the victory at Toppigala is significant and the Army played the most important role in it. But there is a long, long way to go if the Tiger guerrillas are to be defeated. In fact, Defence Secretary, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, declared it would take at least three years more. Even if it is not for that long a period, sustaining a war effort with an enemy that largely retains its military capability is a challenging one but clearly not an impossible one for the Security Forces.
The words of the Chinese philosopher, Sun Tzu, in his treatise on the Art of War over 2,500 years ago still remain relevant. Although he used these words whilst dealing with spies, it seems appropriate in several other respects:
Raising a host of hundred thousand men and marching them great distances entails heavy loss on the people and a drain on the resources of state. The daily expenditure will amount to a thousand ounces of silver. There will be commotion at home and abroad, and men will drop down exhausted on the highways. As many as seven hundred thousand families will be impeded in their labour.
Hostile armies may face each other for years, striving for victory that is decided in a single day. This being so, to remain in ignorance of the enemy's condition, simply because one grudges the outlay of a hundred ounces of silver in honours and emoluments, is the height of inhumanity.
One who acts thus is no leader of men, no present help to his sovereign, no master of victory. What enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.
Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained from other men……. KM1 =====Which path will the LTTE resort to resolve the national conflict? As the nation was preparing to celebrate the liberation of the East in Colombo, Security Forces received information on Wednesday that more than 300 Tiger cadres were moving on the A-9 road towards Puliyankulam.
According to reports they were equipped with all weaponry including mortar charges and were heading towards either to Mannar, Vavuniya or Weli Oya. Though, the real intention of those LTTE cadres was not so clear, it was obvious that the LTTE was preparing for a major offensive to overrun Security Forces FDLs in Vavuniya, Mannar or Weli Oya.
But in the wee hours on Friday Tiger cadres made an attempt to overrun Army detachment at Neelachchena in the Mannar area came under LTTE mortar attack around 2:45 a.m. and Security Forces have retaliated inflicting casualties to the LTTE.
The Army detachment is located in West of Wellankulam on the Vavuniya Mannar road and the LTTE made yet another attempt to overrun another Army detachment in Vavuniya Madhu road on the same day.
During the confrontation at Neelachchenai, three soldiers were killed and nine soldiers injured. However, troops foiled the LTTE attempt to overrun the Army detachment killing at least 9 LTTE cadres. The Security Forces confirmed this figure through the intercepted radio transmissions of the LTTE and it was further revealed that 20 Tiger cadres were also injured during this attack.
In a subsequent operation conducted in the area Security Forces recovered three T-56 rifles, 13 T-56 Magazines, 355 T-56 Ammunition, three RPG bombs, three Hand grenades, one stretcher, one water bottle and pair of rubber slippers.
That was the immediate response of the LTTE towards the President's appeal to the LTTE to seriously assess and accept the realities and abandon their military approach to liberate the Tamil people, in his address to the nation from the Independence Square.
It is now obvious that LTTE is not willing to give up their violent path, and is engaged in more determined effort to regain their lost territories, following their humiliating defeat in the East, specially with the loss of Thoppigala which was under their control for nearly three decades.
Mop up operations The Troops are now engaged in mop up operations to further confirm their victory flushing out Tiger cadres hiding inside various parts of Thoppigala jungle. They further enhanced the security inside the jungle after recovering the full parts of the 12 barrel 107 mm Iran made Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL), which was frequently used by the LTTE against the advancing troops during the Thoppigala battle.
In a series of unearthing conducted since Wednesday Army was able to obtain the complete system of the 12-barrel rocket launcher, by which the LTTE terrorists had killed thousands of civilians and soldiers. At Meeyangolla in Thoppigala, troops found the remaining launching barrels and other accessories of the MBRL. Late in the evening on Friday, troops also found six Rockets used for the MBRL, fifteen riffles (T-56), one grenade launcher, one Rocket Propeller Grenade (RPG) launcher, one 82mm mortar launcher, and six RPG bombs from the same area.
At a separate finding in the Meeyangolla area, troops uncovered 130kg of TNT high explosives and few detonators. The explosives were found in two 25kg and two 40kg cans.
Therefore, the chances of the LTTE to make a come back and take control over the loss territories is fast fading away, under these circumstances. The six infantry battalions deployed to consolidate the ground will further diminish their hopes as it is very unlikely that LTTE would get such a force to immediately defeat the Security Forces.
It is most unlikely they could operate without any ground support for them in the Eastern province, as they do not posses a single base to take cover from the Security Forces. Therefore, the only option available with the LTTE is to mingle with the civilians and destabilize the Government plans to restore civil administration in the Eastern province.
The assassination of Chief Secretary of the Eastern Provincial Council was such a despicable act committed by the LTTE in their desperate bid to foil Government plans to restore civil administration in the East.
The Chief Secretary to the Eastern Province , Mr Herath Abeyweera, was gunned down by an LTTE terrorist on July 16 while he was in his office located at the Inner Harbour Road in Trincomalee at 6.00 p.m.
Mr Herath Abeyweera has been of service for the past 15 years for Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims as Ampara District Secretary prior to his appointment as the Chief Secretary of the Eastern Province.
The real motive of this despicable act is to create fear psychosis among the government servants in the Eastern province thereby preventing them from supporting the Government plan to develop the East.
However, Government is determined to face this challenge and go ahead with their plans to restore all lost democratic rights of the civilian population in the East including their right to elect their leaders according to their wish.
The Police Special Task Force will come forward to maintain law and order in Batticaloa and Ampara easing the task entrusted with the Security Forces in the Eastern province and very soon in the North.
Going through the events unfolded during this week it was obvious that the LTTE was preparing for a major assault on the defences in the Weli Oya sector sandwiched between the Trincomalee and Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
Welioya sector The mortar attack launched on Ethavetunuweva in Weli Oya injuring two civilians was one sign that there is massive LTTE build up there in Weli Oya sector within the past few weeks.
Two women, Karunawathie, aged 58 years, and Niranjala, aged 25 years injured due to LTTE mortar fire were transferred to Anuradhapura General Hospital after being initially treated at Padaviya hospital.
The LTTE had launched several mortar attacks at villages close to the Eastern part of the Wanni Forward Defence Line (FDL) during the recent past. On July 15 two civilians, a mother and daughter suffered injuries when the LTTE terrorists had launched a similar attack at the same village.
The villages of Ethavetunuvewa located very close to the Nedunkerni area will be vulnerable to Tiger attacks and even for attacks in the nature of Kebithigollewa as LTTE can easily use the attacks of this nature for large-scale displacement of Sinhalese civilians from the area.
The LTTE may resort to such action as they easily can exert pressure on the Rajapaksa administration, to stop any military action to take further control of the Northern province as it would definitely lead to the fall of their strongholds in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu.
Tiger leader Prabhakaran will definitely select the theatre in Weli Oya so that he can easily sphere a threat on the Eastern theatre especially to Trincomalee if they succeeded in their efforts. Under these circumstances it is most likely that the LTTE would use Oddusudan and Nedunkerni as the launching pad to attack Weli Oya as they are having a good supply route network connecting the area directly with Mullaitivu.
Therefore, the Security Force believe the 300 strong Tiger group would have moved towards Oddusudan to have build up to launch an attack on Weli Oya sector.
The red alert maintained by the Security Forces and the Police for more than one year should not be relaxed at any moment as the Tiger outfit is awaiting such a moment to reverse the victories achieved by the Security Forces in the East any moment. That would be the best Timeing by the LTTE as it was facing a shortage of manpower as well as arms and ammunition.
Even such battle would be a deadly task for the LTTE with the loss of the Eastern theatre fully from their hand. The worst scenario for the LTTE is that they are already engaged in one battlefront in the West of Omanthai and Madhu area.
According to Security Forces there is a huge LTTE presence in West of Omanthai and they have shifted their cadres in Mullaitivu area too to strengthen their defences in the West of Omanthai. According to Security Forces in the battles West of Omanthai the LTTE had suffered hugely losing a large number of their cadres.
Therefore, the LTTE will have to deploy their cadres on two fronts and they have no means of calling reinforcements to back their battles from the East. Under these circumstances the LTTE can now realize what they have lost during the past one year commencing July 26 last year with the launch of Mavil Aru battle.
The year long battle in the East has lessened the burden on the Security Forces very much as they can very easily mobilize their strength in the FDLs in Mannar, Vavuniya and Weli Oya to face any impending threat from the LTTE.
At present the only task entrusted with the Security Forces in the East is to clear land mines and consolidate their position further strengthening the security of the civilian population.
With the completion of this phase of the operation the Police Special Task Force and the Police very easily can secure the captured territories in the East enabling the Security Forces to defend the FDLs in the Wanni front and Jaffna front.
That is the biggest advantage the Security Forces has gained through the liberation of the Eastern province from the LTTE grip fully running across the battles in Mavil Aru, Muttur, Sampur, Manirasakulam, Gangai, Vakarai, Kathirveli, Peraru jungles, Kokkadicholai, Vavunativu, Karadiyanaru and last in Thoppigala.
If the Security Forces ignored the fortified Tiger bases inside Thoppigala considering them as bases without any strategic importance the Security Forces would not be able to have this advantage as LTTE would take that chance to regain control in the East.
The eased threat on the Trincomalee harbour is also an added advantage as it ensures the free flow of goods to the Jaffna peninsula in the event of a pending battle in Wanni or in Jaffna.
Secure beach fronts At this time the Government is contemplating on two major plans to pressurize the LTTE to come to negotiation table by further moving into the Tiger held areas in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu.
If LTTE make any desperate attempt to launch a major assault on the Security Forces in the Weli Oya sector the Security Forces has the option to move further North of Kokilai lagoon and create a beach front cutting off the LTTE supplies by sea.
However, through the huge presence of Sea Tiger cadres Nayaru in the North of Kokilai to Mullaitivu and further towards Thalaiadi in Jaffna peninsula the LTTe can pose a stiff resistance towards the Security Forces.
The Sri Lanka Navy will have to play a vital role to secure the beachfronts from Nayaru to Mullaitivu as the major threat would come from the Sea Tigers in these battles.
One important factor in these battles is that these will be very much different from the battles in the East as the Tiger outfits fire power remains intact in the Wanni sector, as they were not exposed to any battle in the recent past. Therefore, firepower will play key role in these battles both in the sea and the ground. Therefore, it is vital to keep their supplies cut off to the Tiger outfit. The only remaining means the LTTE depend for their supplies is through the fishing boats and they take the advantage of the Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan territorial waters to smuggle arms and ammunition to the land. However, the Tigers arms smuggling via Gulf of Mannar can also be stopped if troops operating in Vavuniya Madhu road move further towards the North cutting off their beachfronts in Vedithalthivu in North of Mannar. To face all these battles the Security Forces are now in a much more advantageous position after the liberation of the Eastern province from the LTTE as they can not only mobilize the man power but also the fire power deployed to man many FDLs scattered all over the Eastern province.
However, the Government will not contemplate on any of these military plans if the LTTE express its willingness to enter negotiation table giving up all their unrealistic demands to find a political solution to the Tamil question. Ultimately, the ball is now in the LTTE court and it should wisely select which path they should resort to resolve the Tamil question.
Hard on the heels of the victory at Toppigala followed the national celebrations in Colombo last Thursday. Even if the victory by the Security Forces and the Police (mostly their Special Task Force) earned plaudits from the public, the highly publicized event at Independence Square, in marked contrast, was different. Despite a strong campaign to whip up euphoria, only some Sri Lankans showed interest in the event. They hoisted national flags in their homes, offices, shops and motor vehicles. The fact that most others did not, like during Independence Day celebrations, was clearly apparent. There was no countrywide national enthusiasm over the Government sponsored ceremonies.
It was being held to pay tribute to the men and women who laid down their lives, lost their limbs, were wounded and others who succeeded in re-capturing Toppigala. More importantly, as President Mahinda Rajapaksa, declared in his address to the nation, "the demonic forces of terror who for several decades had robbed the freedom of Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim people who lived in the fertile lands of the East of our motherland, have been completely driven away." In other words, the East, the Government declared earlier last week, was now free of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
A Chinese built T-55 Main Battle Tank rolls down Colombo’s Independence Square on Thursday during Government sponsored ceremonies to mark the re-capture of Toppigala. Photo: Gemunu Wellage With last Thursday's events over, Security Forces and Police top brass in the Western Province breathed a sigh of relief. Their great ease is understandable. There were intelligence warnings of at least six different guerrilla groups planning to wreak havoc. The idea, like other planned attacks on VIPs and vital targets, it was claimed, was to mar last Thursday's events.
The Army is placed in overall charge of security in the Western province. All other state security agencies are under their operational command. Army Headquarters have debarred senior officers from dealing with the media. Hence, one of them spoke on grounds of anonymity to The Sunday Times to explain their role in preventing any incidents last Thursday. His remarks not only underscored their difficult role but also the dangers that lay ahead.
He said, "There is a migrant population of nearly a million people entering or leaving the greater Colombo metropolitan area. There are 300,000 vehicles that enter or leave daily. A majority of them cross the Kelani bridge. Of this, the number of buses and coaches average between 10,000 and 15,000."
He said conducting thorough checks on all of them was humanly impossible. On the other hand, he said, several vital installations had to be protected in the light of the LTTE threat (after the re-capture of Toppigala) that economic and military targets would be attacked. This included security installations, the Colombo Port, the Bandaranaike International Airport at Katunayake, Oil installations at Kolonnawa, Muthurajawela, the Kelanitissa Power Station and the Railway. "You have to remember that we have to maintain the peak levels of alert. With limited resources and strength that is a gigantic task," he said.
The Army officer's remarks underscored two important ground realities - Heightened Tiger guerrilla threats in the City and suburbs were very much a likelihood. Though the East was cleared, precautions had to be taken round the clock to prevent any devastating attack. Secondly, the threats to targets in the City require the continuation of troops and police strength now deployed. The preventive measures they adopt, among others, checks on vehicles and persons will thus continue. These factors no doubt leave or even enhance the impression that Colombo is a capital under siege. That is not good news to the commerce and industrial sectors.
Added to that is the warnings already issued to star class hotels and operators of high rise buildings not to switch on their auxiliary power supply when there is a blackout. This is due to fear of air attacks by the guerrillas. In a note to their guests, one leading hotel has advised that when there are blackouts, they should shut any window that is open and draw the curtains. They have been advised to use candles placed in the toilet together with a box of matches. Needless to say, these precautionary measures will continue for some more time. It would be difficult to imagine how an investor wanting to plough in millions of dollars in a project in Sri Lanka would react to these security procedures. These are preliminaries they would have to go through before talking formalities with the local counterparts or Government officials.
Those are the threat perceptions that portend the City of Colombo and suburbs. What about the East, particularly in the aftermath of Government claims that Tiger guerrillas have been completely driven away? Interesting enough, an indication of how things could manifest emerged at the weekly meeting of service chiefs last Tuesday at the Joint Operations Headquarters (JOH). Intelligence officials pointed out that a group of some 50 Tiger guerrilla cadres had infiltrated the East and were poised to carry out attacks. Other intelligence reports had earlier spoken of some 200 cadres moving around in the East. Other sources, however, claimed the numbers were much higher. The revelation at the JOH meeting was about an infiltration after the July 11 re-capture of Toppigala.
The meeting is chaired by the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Donald Perera. It is attended by the Commander of the Army, Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, Commander of the Air Force, Air Marshal Roshan Goonetileke, Police Chief Victor Perera, Commandant of the Police Special Task Force (STF) DIG Nimal Lewke, Chief of Staff of the Army and head of Overall Operations Command (OOC) Major General Lawrence Fernando and senior intelligence officials. The Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, though required to attend, does not participate. Navy sources said this was due to personal reasons. He is represented by a senior Navy officer. The JOH is located in a building inside Army Headquarters.
The fact that a group of 50 guerrilla cadres had infiltrated the east, in an apparent bid to join some 200 which intelligence agencies know are present there, assumes some significance. It is in the light of claims that the guerrillas have been completely driven away from the East. Firstly, evidence that groups were still present in the East was confirmed last Monday.
Suspected Tiger guerrillas shot dead the Chief Secretary of the Eastern Provincial Council, Herath Abeyweera. The top most State official for the Eastern province had introduced a daily work norm that included the hoisting of the national flag and the playing of the national anthem on the public address system. The next day, guerrillas shot dead an Army captain and wounded two soldiers at Sittaru near Kantalai in the Trincomalee district.
The fact that groups are still operating, though not holding territory, poses threats not only to Government officials, but also military, Police top brass and VIPs. They could also be more than an irritant in sabotaging the ambitious development projects which the Government wants to launch. Furthermore, with plans to conduct both local and provincial elections, they can pose serious threats to the lives of candidates contesting them.
Naturally, minimizing these threats effectively would require not only a larger strength but also more resources. This becomes the dilemma for the defence establishment. With claims that the East has been rid of guerrilla presence, their focus is now turning to the North. It is no secret that troops are thinning out in some parts of the East paving the way for Police, including the Special Task Force to take over their roles. More strength and more resources would be required for the planned military operations in the North.
Unlike their strategy in the East of withdrawing to return later, the guerrillas have been strongly resisting any advance by troops in the Northern theatre. This position was underscored by guerrilla political wing leader, S.P. Tamilselvan in an interview with the Tamilnet web site on June 25. He said the LTTE adopts military strategies to suit the place, the environment and the time. He warned that the "Sinhala forces" would understand the trap they have set for themselves. It remains to be seen whether the remarks were mere rhetoric.
Though the Security Forces are yet to formally launch a major offensive in the North, a limited intrusion a week ago met with stiff resistance. Troops broke out of their defended localities near Irana Iluppaikulam to advance towards the village of Tampanai. These areas are located east of Mannar. Ahead of the move artillery and mortar barrages rained on guerrilla positions after midnight that day. By evening troops were back to their original positions. At least 14 soldiers were killed and 78 more were wounded. Army sources say a sizeable number of those wounded were P1 cases or those who would be left out of battle.
In the light of severe restrictions placed by Army Headquarters, correct casualty counts of troops are not made available to the media on most incidents. On Friday, guerrillas mounted attacks on three different small detachments of the Army near Mannar, overrunning one of them. The Army denied Tiger guerrilla claims that they had killed ten soldiers and said only four had died.
Ahead of plans to attack guerrilla positions in the North, a move which the Government has publicly declared, the Security Forces are in the process of assessing their new needs. Besides more equipment, replenishing stocks of artillery, mortar, heavy guns and small arms ammunition will require an enormous financial commitment. This is particularly after vast stocks have been expended in the East during the past months. This is besides the needs of the Air Force and the Navy. This poses a serious question for the Government. Even if immediate needs are obtained by marshalling meagre resources, the economic burden of running the expanding military machine on the long term becomes a critical issue. With a deteriorating economy, how would funds be raised is the all important question.
Even if there is forced recruitment in the North, with the LTTE demanding one member from every family, funds do not seem to be a major problem for them. Since March 26, this year, when they demonstrated their air strike capability, contributions from the Tamil diaspora has increased considerably.
A revealing article due for publication in the Jane's Intelligence Review next month notes that the LTTE generates an estimated US $ 200 to $ 300 million every year. It points out that after meeting their operational costs to run an administration (in the Wanni) amounting to US $ 8 million, the profit margin would become the envy of any multinational corporation.
Unlike the Jihadist movement, the LTTE, the JIR investigation reveals, is a centralized, hierarchical organization commanded and controlled by its founding leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran. It says the LTTE ranks tend to fill the ranks of the two principal directorates that manage the interlocking arms of raising money and buying weapons. However, lower down the chain of command LTTE members tend to act as outsourced agents driven as much by profit as any ideological commitment to creating a Tamil state in Sri Lanka.
The JIR report has delved at length into the findings by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation. During a series of detailed operations, FBI stings led to the arrest of Tiger guerrilla suspects and their associates in New York, Guam, Indonesia and Singapore.
The JIR report says that two overarching financial and procurement bodies are the Aiyanna Group, directed by Pottu Amman, and the Office of Overseas Purchases, directed by Kumaran Pathmanathan, alias KP, and source of the office's nickname, the KP Department. The Aiyanna Group (Aiyanna is a letter from the Tamil alphabet) functions as the Tamil Tigers' clandestine intelligence and operations body and is likely to be responsible for monitoring and ensuring the organisation's financial support and revenue streams. The Aiyanna Group's global management allegedly acts as overseer to Tamil communities in Western countries through myriad LTTE front organizations.
The Office of Overseas Purchases or KP Department is most probably the LTTE's procurement arm. Although Vaitiyalingam Sornalingam, alias Colonel Shankar, created the unit (the now deceased Canadian Tamil who also founded the LTTE's Air and Sea Tiger Wings), KP allegedly directs its activities at present. The second most wanted man in Sri Lanka, Pathmanathan, the JIR report notes, is a highly competent and elusive operative. The KP department has reportedly sourced arms in various countries and operates a fleet of deep-sea vessels, known as Sea Pigeons (Kadal Pura). Normally registered in Panama, Honduras or Liberia, the Sea Pigeons are primarily tasked with the delivery of procured weapons to LTTE bases in Sri Lanka and may also be in other LTTE enterprises, legal or otherwise.
Commenting on KP's role, a high ranking intelligence source in Colombo told The Sunday Times "KP is no longer active. He is sick. We know he is now in a Scandinavian country living under an assumed name. Castro, the LTTE's head of the International Wing, tried to take his place. Some of his operatives fell to FBI traps."
The JIR report reveals that the LTTE creates and staffs charitable fronts and projects its influence through these organizations and outsourced Tamil gangs to raise money from Tamil communities and, ultimately, convert the gains into arms. Noting that weapons from the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu have been limited to items of low technology, JIR says that Cambodia is one of the most significant single sources of weapons to the LTTE outside Sri Lanka. Other sources of origin were the rest of Southeast Asia, North Korea, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and Ukraine. Thailand is also described as another source.
The JIR report notes that LTTE's international network of non-governmental and charitable organizations work as an efficient way for it to move funds wherever investment or procurement opportunities arise. Proving that they can be profitable, these non-profit organizations afford an estimated US $ 2 million a month to the LTTE war chest. The charitable fronts also offer tax free status and legitimacy gained through working with larger, reputable, non-governmental organizations.
JIR says the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami allowed the LTTE to easily raise large sums of money and move them to LTTE-administered regions under the pretext of charitable disaster relief. Much of the money has been untraceable and the Sri Lankan government claims it has been diverted to the LTTE war machine.
In their conclusion, the lengthy JIR account says LTTE's strategic aim of defeating the Sri Lankan military and securing a political victory in the form of a separate Tamil state depends on the organisation's capacity to source money and arms abroad. Its strategic need to acquire high-tech weaponry, such as surface to air missiles, indicates its activities will continue. However, if the Western law enforcement crackdown on LTTE financial and procurement continues, the group's ability to fight may be weakened in the medium term, degrading its ability to withstand the Sri Lankan government's offensives and further undermining its combat capabilities.
Given the losses incurred by the LTTE since 2006 in the east of the country, JIR notes, this may lead to increased pressure to sue for peace, although given the tenacious history of the LTTE not even a severe denigration of its arsenal will encourage a political settlement with the current government.
In the past week or more Tiger guerrillas have withdrawn from positions in Batticaloa west. Military Intelligence sources told The Sunday Times groups had moved to the Trincomalee district.
They have headed towards Kandalkadu, Kadawana and to areas north of Trincomalee. Some groups have also moved into the Ampara district. These sources said sporadic attacks by these groups cannot be ruled out. A disturbing feature in this regard, according to these sources, was the shifting of the LTTE's main intelligence base from the Batticaloa district to the Amparai district. Intercepts of radio communications had shown that the new base was regularly making radio contact with guerrilla bases in the Wanni. Yesterday STF commandos killed six guerrillas including an area leader in Kanjikudichiaru in the Ampara district. This came during the concluding stages of Operation Nihatai Jaya (Assured Victory)
An unusual feature during the Government sponsored celebrations over the victory at Toppigala was a request asking the Army, Navy and the Air Force to address messages to senior school children. The message from the Navy praised both the Army and the Air Force for their role in operations in the East.
But the one from the Army to the students left out the role of the Navy altogether. Naturally, like observers who closely watch the defence and security establishments, discerning students would have wondered whether there was anything wrong. Many a question in this regard has been raised at the highest levels of the Government in the past. If in fact there were differences of opinion or displeasure at the higher levels of command, it is most reprehensible that attempts have been made to educate the senior students, the future generation, of such situations. The fact that there has been no firm Government control over such attempts to poison young minds makes the situation even worse.
This is what the Army message said, "…..the victory at Thoppigala is the greatest win the Army achieved in the past and it was done after master planning with the co-operation of the Commandos and other units whilst the Air Force support was great in aiming at Tiger targets…."
Without doubt, the Navy played a key role in preventing the guerrillas from escaping via sea. Guerrilla re-inforcements being rushed to the east were once intercepted in the seas off Pulmoddai. Gun battles ensued there. During briefings to his senior officers in the East, the Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, had asked them to extend full support to the Army in their operations there.
The concluding paragraph of the Army message to students says,: "Considering that the Indian Army, which is regarded as the fourth largest in the World had difficulties in tackling this area, the admission of defeat by Tiger cadres for the first time, is public proof of our Army's valour and courage." The message ends with a reported quote from a long retired one time IPKF (Indian Peace Keeping Force) intelligence officer that "the Sri Lanka Army can go after any target, which goes to prove that the Tiger days are numbered under the present Army Commander (Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka), which statement we make with pride but with humility."
How the IPKF then found it difficult to reach Toppigala or where and when the Tiger cadres admitted defeat is not made clear. There is little doubt that the victory at Toppigala is significant and the Army played the most important role in it. But there is a long, long way to go if the Tiger guerrillas are to be defeated. In fact, Defence Secretary, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, declared it would take at least three years more. Even if it is not for that long a period, sustaining a war effort with an enemy that largely retains its military capability is a challenging one but clearly not an impossible one for the Security Forces.
The words of the Chinese philosopher, Sun Tzu, in his treatise on the Art of War over 2,500 years ago still remain relevant. Although he used these words whilst dealing with spies, it seems appropriate in several other respects:
Raising a host of hundred thousand men and marching them great distances entails heavy loss on the people and a drain on the resources of state. The daily expenditure will amount to a thousand ounces of silver. There will be commotion at home and abroad, and men will drop down exhausted on the highways. As many as seven hundred thousand families will be impeded in their labour.
Hostile armies may face each other for years, striving for victory that is decided in a single day. This being so, to remain in ignorance of the enemy's condition, simply because one grudges the outlay of a hundred ounces of silver in honours and emoluments, is the height of inhumanity.
One who acts thus is no leader of men, no present help to his sovereign, no master of victory. What enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.
Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained from other men……. KM1 =====Which path will the LTTE resort to resolve the national conflict? As the nation was preparing to celebrate the liberation of the East in Colombo, Security Forces received information on Wednesday that more than 300 Tiger cadres were moving on the A-9 road towards Puliyankulam.
According to reports they were equipped with all weaponry including mortar charges and were heading towards either to Mannar, Vavuniya or Weli Oya. Though, the real intention of those LTTE cadres was not so clear, it was obvious that the LTTE was preparing for a major offensive to overrun Security Forces FDLs in Vavuniya, Mannar or Weli Oya.
But in the wee hours on Friday Tiger cadres made an attempt to overrun Army detachment at Neelachchena in the Mannar area came under LTTE mortar attack around 2:45 a.m. and Security Forces have retaliated inflicting casualties to the LTTE.
The Army detachment is located in West of Wellankulam on the Vavuniya Mannar road and the LTTE made yet another attempt to overrun another Army detachment in Vavuniya Madhu road on the same day.
During the confrontation at Neelachchenai, three soldiers were killed and nine soldiers injured. However, troops foiled the LTTE attempt to overrun the Army detachment killing at least 9 LTTE cadres. The Security Forces confirmed this figure through the intercepted radio transmissions of the LTTE and it was further revealed that 20 Tiger cadres were also injured during this attack.
In a subsequent operation conducted in the area Security Forces recovered three T-56 rifles, 13 T-56 Magazines, 355 T-56 Ammunition, three RPG bombs, three Hand grenades, one stretcher, one water bottle and pair of rubber slippers.
That was the immediate response of the LTTE towards the President's appeal to the LTTE to seriously assess and accept the realities and abandon their military approach to liberate the Tamil people, in his address to the nation from the Independence Square.
It is now obvious that LTTE is not willing to give up their violent path, and is engaged in more determined effort to regain their lost territories, following their humiliating defeat in the East, specially with the loss of Thoppigala which was under their control for nearly three decades.
Mop up operations The Troops are now engaged in mop up operations to further confirm their victory flushing out Tiger cadres hiding inside various parts of Thoppigala jungle. They further enhanced the security inside the jungle after recovering the full parts of the 12 barrel 107 mm Iran made Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL), which was frequently used by the LTTE against the advancing troops during the Thoppigala battle.
In a series of unearthing conducted since Wednesday Army was able to obtain the complete system of the 12-barrel rocket launcher, by which the LTTE terrorists had killed thousands of civilians and soldiers. At Meeyangolla in Thoppigala, troops found the remaining launching barrels and other accessories of the MBRL. Late in the evening on Friday, troops also found six Rockets used for the MBRL, fifteen riffles (T-56), one grenade launcher, one Rocket Propeller Grenade (RPG) launcher, one 82mm mortar launcher, and six RPG bombs from the same area.
At a separate finding in the Meeyangolla area, troops uncovered 130kg of TNT high explosives and few detonators. The explosives were found in two 25kg and two 40kg cans.
Therefore, the chances of the LTTE to make a come back and take control over the loss territories is fast fading away, under these circumstances. The six infantry battalions deployed to consolidate the ground will further diminish their hopes as it is very unlikely that LTTE would get such a force to immediately defeat the Security Forces.
It is most unlikely they could operate without any ground support for them in the Eastern province, as they do not posses a single base to take cover from the Security Forces. Therefore, the only option available with the LTTE is to mingle with the civilians and destabilize the Government plans to restore civil administration in the Eastern province.
The assassination of Chief Secretary of the Eastern Provincial Council was such a despicable act committed by the LTTE in their desperate bid to foil Government plans to restore civil administration in the East.
The Chief Secretary to the Eastern Province , Mr Herath Abeyweera, was gunned down by an LTTE terrorist on July 16 while he was in his office located at the Inner Harbour Road in Trincomalee at 6.00 p.m.
Mr Herath Abeyweera has been of service for the past 15 years for Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims as Ampara District Secretary prior to his appointment as the Chief Secretary of the Eastern Province.
The real motive of this despicable act is to create fear psychosis among the government servants in the Eastern province thereby preventing them from supporting the Government plan to develop the East.
However, Government is determined to face this challenge and go ahead with their plans to restore all lost democratic rights of the civilian population in the East including their right to elect their leaders according to their wish.
The Police Special Task Force will come forward to maintain law and order in Batticaloa and Ampara easing the task entrusted with the Security Forces in the Eastern province and very soon in the North.
Going through the events unfolded during this week it was obvious that the LTTE was preparing for a major assault on the defences in the Weli Oya sector sandwiched between the Trincomalee and Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
Welioya sector The mortar attack launched on Ethavetunuweva in Weli Oya injuring two civilians was one sign that there is massive LTTE build up there in Weli Oya sector within the past few weeks.
Two women, Karunawathie, aged 58 years, and Niranjala, aged 25 years injured due to LTTE mortar fire were transferred to Anuradhapura General Hospital after being initially treated at Padaviya hospital.
The LTTE had launched several mortar attacks at villages close to the Eastern part of the Wanni Forward Defence Line (FDL) during the recent past. On July 15 two civilians, a mother and daughter suffered injuries when the LTTE terrorists had launched a similar attack at the same village.
The villages of Ethavetunuvewa located very close to the Nedunkerni area will be vulnerable to Tiger attacks and even for attacks in the nature of Kebithigollewa as LTTE can easily use the attacks of this nature for large-scale displacement of Sinhalese civilians from the area.
The LTTE may resort to such action as they easily can exert pressure on the Rajapaksa administration, to stop any military action to take further control of the Northern province as it would definitely lead to the fall of their strongholds in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu.
Tiger leader Prabhakaran will definitely select the theatre in Weli Oya so that he can easily sphere a threat on the Eastern theatre especially to Trincomalee if they succeeded in their efforts. Under these circumstances it is most likely that the LTTE would use Oddusudan and Nedunkerni as the launching pad to attack Weli Oya as they are having a good supply route network connecting the area directly with Mullaitivu.
Therefore, the Security Force believe the 300 strong Tiger group would have moved towards Oddusudan to have build up to launch an attack on Weli Oya sector.
The red alert maintained by the Security Forces and the Police for more than one year should not be relaxed at any moment as the Tiger outfit is awaiting such a moment to reverse the victories achieved by the Security Forces in the East any moment. That would be the best Timeing by the LTTE as it was facing a shortage of manpower as well as arms and ammunition.
Even such battle would be a deadly task for the LTTE with the loss of the Eastern theatre fully from their hand. The worst scenario for the LTTE is that they are already engaged in one battlefront in the West of Omanthai and Madhu area.
According to Security Forces there is a huge LTTE presence in West of Omanthai and they have shifted their cadres in Mullaitivu area too to strengthen their defences in the West of Omanthai. According to Security Forces in the battles West of Omanthai the LTTE had suffered hugely losing a large number of their cadres.
Therefore, the LTTE will have to deploy their cadres on two fronts and they have no means of calling reinforcements to back their battles from the East. Under these circumstances the LTTE can now realize what they have lost during the past one year commencing July 26 last year with the launch of Mavil Aru battle.
The year long battle in the East has lessened the burden on the Security Forces very much as they can very easily mobilize their strength in the FDLs in Mannar, Vavuniya and Weli Oya to face any impending threat from the LTTE.
At present the only task entrusted with the Security Forces in the East is to clear land mines and consolidate their position further strengthening the security of the civilian population.
With the completion of this phase of the operation the Police Special Task Force and the Police very easily can secure the captured territories in the East enabling the Security Forces to defend the FDLs in the Wanni front and Jaffna front.
That is the biggest advantage the Security Forces has gained through the liberation of the Eastern province from the LTTE grip fully running across the battles in Mavil Aru, Muttur, Sampur, Manirasakulam, Gangai, Vakarai, Kathirveli, Peraru jungles, Kokkadicholai, Vavunativu, Karadiyanaru and last in Thoppigala.
If the Security Forces ignored the fortified Tiger bases inside Thoppigala considering them as bases without any strategic importance the Security Forces would not be able to have this advantage as LTTE would take that chance to regain control in the East.
The eased threat on the Trincomalee harbour is also an added advantage as it ensures the free flow of goods to the Jaffna peninsula in the event of a pending battle in Wanni or in Jaffna.
Secure beach fronts At this time the Government is contemplating on two major plans to pressurize the LTTE to come to negotiation table by further moving into the Tiger held areas in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu.
If LTTE make any desperate attempt to launch a major assault on the Security Forces in the Weli Oya sector the Security Forces has the option to move further North of Kokilai lagoon and create a beach front cutting off the LTTE supplies by sea.
However, through the huge presence of Sea Tiger cadres Nayaru in the North of Kokilai to Mullaitivu and further towards Thalaiadi in Jaffna peninsula the LTTe can pose a stiff resistance towards the Security Forces.
The Sri Lanka Navy will have to play a vital role to secure the beachfronts from Nayaru to Mullaitivu as the major threat would come from the Sea Tigers in these battles.
One important factor in these battles is that these will be very much different from the battles in the East as the Tiger outfits fire power remains intact in the Wanni sector, as they were not exposed to any battle in the recent past. Therefore, firepower will play key role in these battles both in the sea and the ground. Therefore, it is vital to keep their supplies cut off to the Tiger outfit. The only remaining means the LTTE depend for their supplies is through the fishing boats and they take the advantage of the Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan territorial waters to smuggle arms and ammunition to the land. However, the Tigers arms smuggling via Gulf of Mannar can also be stopped if troops operating in Vavuniya Madhu road move further towards the North cutting off their beachfronts in Vedithalthivu in North of Mannar. To face all these battles the Security Forces are now in a much more advantageous position after the liberation of the Eastern province from the LTTE as they can not only mobilize the man power but also the fire power deployed to man many FDLs scattered all over the Eastern province.
However, the Government will not contemplate on any of these military plans if the LTTE express its willingness to enter negotiation table giving up all their unrealistic demands to find a political solution to the Tamil question. Ultimately, the ball is now in the LTTE court and it should wisely select which path they should resort to resolve the Tamil question.
Winning hearts of Tamils in the East - the need of the hour - Armed Forces
Shanika Sriyananda reporting from Thoppigala
Shanika Sriyananda reporting from Thoppigala
High ranking military officials in the East said that Sri Lanka's Armed Forces proved their dedication and capabilities in liberating the innocent Tamils from the jaws of terrorists with the capture of the East including its nerve centre - Thoppigala. They said it is now the responsibility of the Government to give the Tamils a solution to end the national conflict.
"We know that the war is not the solution to end the problem. The East has now been completely liberated from the LTTE's clutches. Still the troops are searching the runaway LTTE cadres.
The Armed Forces have launched several search operations", they said.
They said that they believe there were some LTTE cadres who had escaped from Thoppigala and were living with the IDPs. "However, the youth and children in the East had been forcibly abducted by the LTTE and were used in combat zones", they said.
The officials said it was high time for the Government to win the trust of the ordinary Tamils by providing them with their basic needs and ensuring their right to life.
The facilities in the East should be upgraded to win the hearts and minds of the Tamils. We know that the majority of them do not want war and they are sick of war, said a high ranking army officer.
No comments:
Post a Comment